XRP held near $1.38 Tuesday despite a sharp rise in Treasury yields and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates at its September meeting.
The token was almost unchanged over 24 hours but remained down approximately 6.8% over seven days. Its market capitalization stood near $86.4 billion, while 24-hour trading volume fell roughly 26% to $1.78 billion.
That stability is being tested by a rapidly deteriorating macro environment. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.8%, its highest level since January 2025, while the dollar strengthened as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns.
Fed Hike Odds Jump as Bond Markets Sell Off
Fed funds futures now indicate a 68% probability of a September rate increase, up from 35% before Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, according to Reuters.
Warsh said the Fed would still have “work to do” if inflation failed to cool. Governor Michael Barr added Tuesday that rates may need to rise if price pressures do not decline quickly.
The shift extends the hawkish Fed outlook that began after Jackson Hole. The latest Treasury move also reflects renewed oil-driven inflation fears following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
Higher yields typically challenge speculative assets by making government debt more attractive and raising the discount rate applied to riskier investments. A stronger dollar can create an additional headwind for dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies.
However, yields do not determine XRP’s price by themselves. ETF flows, leverage, broader crypto sentiment and XRP-specific positioning remain important.
XRP ETF Demand Collides With Weekly Price Weakness
The macro pressure is arriving despite unusually strong institutional demand.
U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $110.49 million during the week ending Aug. 28, their strongest weekly inflow of 2026. Cumulative net inflows reached roughly $1.66 billion, while combined net assets stood near $1.44 billion.
That ETF demand has not prevented XRP from losing almost 7% over the past week, creating a notable divergence between regulated investment flows and spot-market performance.
| XRP price | $1.38 | Holding near short-term support |
| XRP seven-day performance | −6.8% | Weekly momentum remains weak |
| Weekly XRP ETF inflows | $110.49M | Strongest institutional demand of 2026 |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | 4.8% | Highest level in roughly 19 months |
| September Fed hike probability | 68% | Markets increasingly expect tighter policy |
Near-term attention remains centered on the $1.35–$1.36 region, which has recently acted as support. XRP traded between approximately $1.36 and $1.40 Tuesday, making $1.40 the first resistance level and $1.45 the more consequential recovery threshold.
The market signal is complicated further by mixed XRP Ledger data, where transactions per ledger increased sharply even as payment volume and active accounts declined.
The September 15–16 Fed meeting now provides the next major macro deadline. Before then, employment and inflation releases could either reinforce the rate-hike case or ease the pressure. For XRP, holding the $1.35 area while yields remain elevated would demonstrate resilience; losing it would suggest ETF buying is still insufficient to offset the broader tightening trade.
Be the first to comment