XRP Is Quietly Draining Off Exchanges, And Data Suggests the Next Move Could Be Up

XRP exchange data indicates that the token’s supply may actually be dropping on the Binance exchange despite recent whale inflows.

XRP entered Sept. 22 at an important point after climbing to $1.57 in the previous session and then pulling back to $1.51 at press time. While the pullback could look like a sign that the recent rally is losing strength, the data behind XRP’s supply remains bullish.

Binance Is Losing XRP Supply

XRP currently trades at $1.5176, while its daily range stands between $1.5062 and $1.5398. However, the more important development comes from Binance. 

Specifically, XRP inflows to the exchange have fallen 20.37%, while outflows have declined 25.96%. Because outflows have dropped by a larger amount than inflows, Binance has recorded a net negative flow of roughly 102,912 XRP.

This is important because XRP held on an exchange remains readily available for trading and selling. When holders move XRP from Binance into private wallets, they reduce the amount of supply immediately available on the market. 

As a result, the current flow data suggests that some holders are moving their XRP away from exchanges instead of selling into the recent price recovery. The fact that this decline in exchange reserves comes during a price rally is also important.

XRP Whale Flows Show Increased Activity

Nonetheless, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain recently reported that large-wallet inflows to Binance reached about 1.6 billion XRP over the previous 30 days. This marked the highest cumulative reading since March, after whale activity weakened through May, June, and July.

However, Binance’s XRP reserve has not risen by a similar amount. The exchange ended the week with 2,630,628,140 XRP, just 0.22% above its quarterly baseline and 0.34% higher than the previous week. 

The increase in whale inflows with the relatively small change in reserves suggests increased turnover and repositioning, not a wave of selling. Whales are moving large amounts of XRP, but the data does not yet confirm distribution.

XRP Market Cap Remains Elevated

The market cap data also confirms a less bearish reading of the correction. XRP’s fully diluted market cap, which counts all tokens in existence, climbed from around $103 billion earlier in the rally to more than $150 billion at the peak. It has since fallen back to around $138.97 billion.

The market cap based on XRP’s circulating supply currently sits closer to $94 billion. Despite the pullback from the rally’s peak, the market cap remains relatively high while net exchange flows remain negative. 

This suggests that the correction has not yet produced a fresh wave of selling strong enough to significantly increase XRP supply on exchanges.

September Seasonality Could Still Weigh on XRP

There is, however, one risk in the current setup: XRP’s September seasonal record. In seven of the last eight years, XRP’s September performance moved in the opposite direction of its August performance. 

On the two occasions when August ended with a gain, September followed with declines of 14% in 2020 and 19.6% in 2021.

This pattern is particularly relevant this year because XRP gained 30% in August, marking its strongest August performance since 2021. Seasonal trends do not determine XRP’s next move, but the historical pattern may add another headwind as the token enters the final stretch of September.

For now, the underlying data does not show a clear breakdown. The next important level on the upside is $1.55. A clean break above that level could open the way toward $1.68. On the other hand, buyers need to defend the $1.4860 support zone to keep the current structure intact.