XRP NUPL Hits Deep Capitulation Levels That Marked Past Market Bottoms

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The XRP Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has collapsed to -0.3391, representing one of its weakest readings in recent years.

This places XRP deep in the capitulation zone, a level that has appeared near major XRP market bottoms in previous cycles. 

For context, the NUPL measures whether XRP holders, as a whole, are sitting on unrealized profits or losses. At -0.3391, unrealized losses now outweigh unrealized gains across the market.

This is one of XRP’s lowest NUPL readings since the devastating 2022 bear market. In the past, deeply negative NUPL levels have shown that many investors who bought at higher prices were beginning to lose confidence. 

As fear grows, weaker holders often sell, while long-term investors continue to hold. Previous XRP cycles show that this sort of market condition has appeared near the end of bear markets.

MVRV Shows XRP Trading Below Holders’ Average Cost

Elsewhere, XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at 0.7468, meaning the market values XRP about 25.3% below the average price that on-chain holders paid for their coins. 

Whenever the MVRV falls below 1.0, XRP trades below its aggregate cost basis. In previous cycles, this has often encouraged long-term investors to accumulate even when prices continued moving lower in the short term.

XRP showed similar MVRV readings during the 2018-2019 bear market bottom and again throughout the extended 2022 capitulation period before both recoveries began. The current 0.7468 reading puts XRP back in that historical undervaluation range. 

However, today’s conditions have not matched the extreme levels seen in 2022, when NUPL dropped to around -0.75 to -0.80. Essentially, the current structure shares several similarities with earlier market bottoms but has not yet reached the same level of stress.

Historical XRP NUPL Trends

Notably, the NUPL chart covering 2021 through 2026 provides perspective on where XRP stands today. In early 2021, NUPL climbed above 0.50 into the Euphoria-Greed zone, showing that most holders were sitting on healthy unrealized gains. 

As market conditions weakened, the indicator moved through the Belief-Denial and Optimism-Anxiety stages before entering deep Capitulation during 2022, where it eventually bottomed around -0.75 before the next recovery started.

The 2024-2025 bull market briefly changed the trend. Specifically, XRP climbed above $3.00 in early 2025, pushing NUPL back into positive territory and close to euphoric levels. 

However, since then, the asset has remained under heavy selling pressure. XRP has dropped nearly 70% to around $1.06, while NUPL has fallen back to -0.3391. The current path matches the early and middle stages of the 2022 capitulation that eventually led to a market bottom.

XRP Still Trades Below Key EMAs

Currently, XRP trades at around $1.04, below its 20-day EMA at $1.08, 50-day EMA at $1.1134, 100-day EMA at $1.1940, and 200-day moving average at $1.3872. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 39.27, still above the classic oversold region.

XRP also recently broke below a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, confirming that the broader downtrend remains in place. 

The area between $1.00 and $1.03 now acts as the main support zone. If XRP closes a week below $1.00, selling pressure could increase and send the price toward $0.90 to $0.95. 

On the upside, buyers first need to push XRP back above the $1.10 to $1.14 resistance range before any recovery can gain strength. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average near $1.38 represents the next major target.