XRP wicked below $1.06 on Binance in mid-July before a sharp reversal, and whale inflows to major exchanges just fell to their lowest level in two months.
XRP touched $1.0572 on Binance, sat there maybe forty minutes, and by the time anyone noticed, the price had already clawed back most of the way to $1.10.
Didn’t look like much at the time. Just another red wick, in a summer that hasn’t given XRP holders a whole lot to work with since the token peaked above $3.60 back in July 2025 (feels like forever ago at this point). Then the bounce kept going. Hasn’t really stopped since, either.
So here we are, nine days later, XRP/USDT sitting near $1.13, and there’s a lot more happening under that number than the price tag lets on.
A Sweep, Then a Fast Reversal
The four-hour chart is where this actually gets specific. Price wicked down to $1.0572, then spent something like four days grinding out a base, roughly $1.08 to $1.10, sitting well above that actual low instead of retesting it. Traders have a name for that, a higher low, and once price cleared somewhere around $1.145 on July 20 the short-term trend flipped from bearish to bullish. At least by that measure.
From there XRP ran to $1.165 by July 21, before sellers stepped back in. What’s playing out now, this pullback into roughly $1.125 to $1.155, reads less like a breakdown and more like a retest of whatever zone kicked the breakout off in the first place.
Source: TradingView, Binance data (XRP/USDT, 4H) — tradingview.com/chart/z0EwKq6I
Zooming Out Tells a Rougher Story
Not everyone’s buying the bullish read, though, and the daily chart is exactly where that doubt shows up. XRP basically sat boxed in, February through June, somewhere between $1.20 and $1.50. Four months in that range, give or take, after crashing out of the $2.30s back in early February.
Then July came along and broke the floor. Price slid straight through $1.20, kept falling until it hit roughly the same zone the four-hour chart marked as its sweep, call it $1.05 to $1.09. The nine-day moving average’s been sloping down basically this whole time, only just now starting to flatten near where price sits today.
Source: TradingView, Binance data (XRP/USDT, Daily) — tradingview.com/chart/z0EwKq6I
The Weekly Chart Remembers November 2024
Pull the timeframe back further and the story shifts again. Most of XRP’s entire 2024-2025 run kicked off from a base somewhere around $0.35 to $0.55, roughly where the token spent most of 2022 and 2023, before that November 2024 breakout carried it toward $3.60 in under eight months. Fast move, in hindsight.
Price has basically round-tripped that whole thing by now. The descending trendline running from the July 2025 top down to today’s candle is still intact as far as the chart shows, and current price is sitting almost exactly where that original breakout launched from. Not the $0.40 base itself, more like the shelf just above it, where the parabolic leg first took off.
Source: TradingView, Binance data (XRP/USDT, Weekly) — tradingview.com/chart/z0EwKq6I
Whales Stopped Sending Coins to Binance
XRP’s 30-day whale inflow to Binance, the number CryptoQuant tracks, sits near 947.4 million tokens right now. Lowest print in two months, and a 34.4% drop from that 1.445 billion peak back in late June, per “XRP Whale Inflows to Binance Sink to a Two-Month Low”.
There’s a separate CryptoQuant breakdown too, sourced via darkfost_coc on X, and it makes the longer trend look even sharper. Peak Binance whale inflows once got as high as 583 million XRP, something like $1.36 billion at the time. That number’s since collapsed to just 25.3 million XRP, roughly $23 million, and a chart from ArabxChain on X flagged basically the same thing.
Doesn’t guarantee a rally, less supply hitting the exchange like that. But it does clear out a lot of the overhead that would otherwise be capping one.
A Pattern Traders Have Seen Before
There’s a second data point going around too, this one from Binance’s withdrawal-to-deposit ratio rather than the whale numbers above. Binance’s share of XRP withdrawal transactions climbed to 54.5% on July 17, apparently the highest reading in about two years now, according to “XRP Withdrawals From Binance Hit Highest Level Since 2024”.
Funny thing is, something close to this exact setup happened once before, back on June 20, 2025. XRP ran from around $2.11 up to $3.50 in the month after that, which works out to roughly 66%. Not saying it repeats. CryptoQuant’s own note on the data is pretty careful here, pointing out the percentages track transaction counts and not actual volume moved, so really it’s measuring a shift in behavior, not proof money’s leaving the exchanges.
The order book’s told a messier story lately too, for what it’s worth. A separate CryptoQuant dataset, the one covered in “XRP Sellers Still Rule Binance as CVD Score Refuses to Turn”, shows that cumulative volume delta score staying negative through most of July. Sellers still absorbing more of the tape than buyers, even with fresh inflows drying up.
What The Next Few Days Probably Decide
Drop down to the one-hour chart and honestly, the fight’s happening right now. XRP got rejected hard around $1.165 on July 21, been sliding ever since, testing that same intraday support that held up through the run. If that level goes, the four-hour order block’s probably back in play a lot sooner than the daily chart would suggest.
Source: TradingView, Binance data (XRP/USDT, 1H) — tradingview.com/chart/z0EwKq6I
For now XRP’s parked almost exactly where all four timeframes above seem to be pointing. Hold $1.10 to $1.13, and the short-term structure stays bullish, next tests being $1.165 then that $1.20 range floor off the daily chart. Lose it though, and the July sweep low near $1.057 becomes the level deciding whether this was ever a real base, or just a pause on the way to something worse. Full chart’s viewable on TradingView, including everything discussed above.
One More Thing Worth Watching
Worth noting, the broader liquidity backdrop isn’t exactly sitting still either. Circle’s $410 million Gateway milestone for crosschain USDC transfers got reported the same week, and it’s a decent reminder that stablecoin rails feeding exchange order books keep growing, even while XRP just chops sideways. That kind of liquidity has a way of showing up wherever the next bid actually is.
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