Zero oil tankers pass through Strait of Hormuz in historic shutdown

Zero oil tankers traversed the Strait of Hormuz today, the first complete shutdown in the strait’s history. The U.S. escort market for April 30 sits at 16.5% YES, up from 18% twenty-four hours ago.

The complete halt in tanker traffic has pushed traders toward the U.S. escort market. The UK warship deployment market moved in the opposite direction, dropping to 8.5% YES from 12% yesterday.

The ship transit market for April 13–19 shows “fewer than 10 ships” at 0.4% YES, consistent with expectations of minimal traffic during the blockade. Liquidity in this market is low, and actual USDC traded remains minor, suggesting traders aren’t heavily committing yet.

A full shutdown of the strait directly threatens roughly 20% of global oil transit. If the blockade persists, pressure on the U.S. to provide naval escorts increases. Buying YES on the U.S. escort market at 16.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return. Without firm U.S. action, these markets remain speculative.

Watch for announcements from President Trump or the Pentagon on naval operations in the region. A shift in CENTCOM’s operational posture or confirmation of naval deployments would likely move these markets sharply.

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