Rain (RAIN) trades at $0.00887 on Friday evening. That makes it the 21st largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, and that is exactly what is odd about it: on paper the market value is $6.30 billion, yet only $7.14 million changed hands over the past 24 hours. Anyone unwinding a larger position meets a market too small to take it.
Since the token unlock of October 12, our own analysis puts 709.25 billion RAIN in circulation out of 1,142.41 billion units issued in total. That is 62.08 percent. The price sits 13.68 percent below last week’s level and 54.42 percent below the high of August 25.
How many RAIN are in circulation today
A token unlock is the end of a lock-up: units that were contractually tied up become transferable and can be sold. For RAIN that process runs in stages rather than in a single step.
The position after the October date, taken from CoinGecko’s supply and trading data:
- Circulating supply: 709.25 billion RAIN
- Total issued supply: 1,142.41 billion RAIN
- Maximum supply: 1,150 billion RAIN
- Not yet transferable: 433.15 billion RAIN, or 37.92 percent
- Market capitalisation: $6.30 billion
cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on October 16, 2026. It rests on the supply and trading data of the 25 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, as of Friday evening.
What the 62 percent figure does not say
A ratio of 62 percent sounds like a project that has most of its dilution behind it. Count in dollars and the picture changes. The fully diluted valuation stands at $10.14 billion, the market capitalisation at $6.30 billion. Between those two numbers sit $3.84 billion that have not reached the market yet. That is more than half of today’s market value and, for comparison, more than all of Litecoin is worth.
The October 12 unlock and the estimates that disagree
Ahead of the date, the figures for its size were far apart. An analysis by data provider RootData, cited by ChainCatcher on October 5, put the release at a value of around $417 million. Our own preview of October 3 named $785 million, calculated on the price of $0.0103 at the time. Both figures still stand as they are; they are not smoothed over here, because the underlying release schedules are read differently in public.
What can be verified is the amount in circulation today. That figure is the benchmark against which dilution can be measured, and it is the starting point for everything that follows.
Why the price gave way before the date
An announced unlock usually works before the date, not after it. Market participants who know that supply is coming sell beforehand. The record fits: over a month RAIN is down 32.49 percent, over a week 13.68 percent, and over the past 24 hours only 0.88 percent. The move came before the date, not at it.
Market value $6.3 billion, daily turnover $7.1 million: what that ratio says
The most telling number on RAIN is not a price but a quotient. Divide daily turnover by market capitalisation and you get the share of market value that actually changes hands in a day. For RAIN that is 0.113 percent.
For context, the same calculation for all 25 names in the top group, as of Friday evening. The median is 2.387 percent, 21 times higher than RAIN. Only one name in the group trades thinner: LEO Token at 0.003 percent. At the other end sit Bitcoin at 1.747 percent, Ethereum at 4.254 percent and NEAR Protocol at 17.712 percent.
What market depth means in practice
Market depth decides the price at which you actually get out of a position. With daily turnover of $7.14 million, a sell order in the six figures is enough to move the price visibly. The quoted price holds for small amounts; for large ones it does not. That gap is called slippage, the difference between the expected and the achieved price.
So before buying, it pays to look at the trading pairs and the order book depth of the venue in question. Which licensed European houses carry which pairs and what they charge is in the crypto exchange comparison.
The price path since the high of August 25
RAIN set its all-time high on August 25 at $0.01946. It is 54.42 percent short of that today. Over the past 24 hours the price moved between $0.00882 and $0.00976, a range of a good ten percent, on the turnover named above.
Levels above and below
Two reference points emerge from the past few days, both meant as orientation and expressly not as a price target or a recommendation.
Below, the session low of $0.00882 is the next level; beneath it there is no support from recent weeks that can be pinned to a number. Above, the session high of $0.00976 would be the first, then the round $0.01 level where the price still stood before the unlock date.
Why levels carry less weight in thin trading
Support and resistance form because many participants buy or sell at the same place. Where daily turnover is 0.113 percent of market value, such zones form more weakly, and single larger orders shift them. Chart levels on RAIN are therefore softer than on a broadly traded asset.
Where RAIN stays tradable after Kraken’s exit
Trading routes changed twice in 2026. Kraken liquidated its customers’ RAIN holdings and set a withdrawal deadline for the proceeds; the detail, and what holders could still do afterwards, is in our report on the Kraken deadline. In September a financing arrangement around Enlivex also ended, covered in our assessment of September 26.
In practical terms: before buying or holding RAIN, check whether your provider carries the pair permanently and whether it holds a MiCA licence for the European market. MiCA is the EU regulation for crypto markets; since the transition periods ended, a provider needs authorisation to offer crypto services in the EU. Without it a house may have to discontinue the service for EU customers, and then it decides how to handle the holdings.
Leverage and liquidation
A token with this turnover profile is no place for leverage. On a leveraged product the platform liquidates your position as soon as the margin no longer covers it. Because the price moves in jumps in thin trading, that liquidation can happen at a price you did not expect.
Custody: what is left after an exchange decides
The Kraken episode shows the difference between a holding on an exchange and a holding in your own custody. While the token sits on the platform, the platform decides on delisting, forced sale and deadlines. In your own wallet, the decision stays with you even if a provider exits. The price for that is securing the private key yourself. Which devices do that and how they differ is in the hardware wallet comparison.
Tax and the holding period on a token with staged releases
Private disposals of crypto assets in Germany carry a one-year holding period: sell after that year and the gain is tax-free, sell before and it falls under income tax. The period runs per acquisition, so for each purchase separately.
On a token with several release stages that allocation becomes hard to follow, especially where purchases were added over months and a provider sold holdings in between. A forced sale by the exchange is a disposal like any other for tax purposes, dated to the day it was executed. Anyone with such events in the year needs the records for them. Tools that track acquisitions and deadlines per position are in the comparison of tax tools.
Dated events in the coming weeks
A documented, dated next release date for RAIN is not publicly available in a form that could be named here as a number with a date: the available release schedules contradict each other, as the estimates for the October date showed above. What remains countable are the 433.15 billion RAIN that are not yet transferable. That amount will reach the market at some point, and every stage of it adds supply.
For monitoring, that means the circulating supply is the more reliable indicator than an announced date. If it jumps, a stage has taken place.
What Rain actually is
RAIN is the token of a prediction market, a platform on which users bet on the outcome of future events. In September a price jump to $0.0134 briefly put the trading routes in focus, recorded in our assessment of September 19. The unlock and its background are in our preview of October 3.
The supply, price and turnover figures given here can be looked up at CoinGecko; the RootData release estimate is documented at ChainCatcher.
RAIN supply: $3.84 billion still waiting for release
The market value of $6.30 billion and the daily turnover of $7.14 million belong together. Three concrete steps follow from them.
- Check the trading route. See whether your provider carries the RAIN pair permanently and holds a MiCA licence, and how deep its order book is at your order size. Providers and terms are in the exchange comparison.
- Settle the custody question. Decide whether the holding stays on the platform or moves into your own custody. After the Kraken episode that is no theoretical question. Devices are in the hardware wallet comparison.
- Document your acquisitions. Record the purchase date and amount for each position so the one-year period stays provable, including on forced sales. Tools are in the tax tool comparison.
(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
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