What to know:
- Galaxy Research lowered the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 60%, down from an earlier 75% estimate.
- The downgrade is driven mainly by a crowded U.S. Senate calendar, with competing priorities and limited legislative time creating procedural delays.
- Additional concerns include unresolved debates on ethics rules for lawmakers and anti–illicit finance provisions that still need agreement.
Galaxy Research has reduced the probability of passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 to 60% from an initial prediction of 75%. This is due to growing concerns about the jam-packed Senate calendar, as well as unresolved policy issues. Speaking on this development, Alex Thorn, the Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, noted that although there is solid backing for the market structure bill, Galaxy Research sees time as a major obstacle.
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Galaxy Research Points to Senate Calendar as Key Obstacle
As noted by Galaxy Research, it is not an absence of political will but rather a scarcity of legislative time in the US Senate that presents a serious obstacle to the successful passage of the CLARITY Act into law. According to Thorn, members of Congress will have to dedicate a significant part of their future sittings to FISA-related concerns.
Furthermore, the Senate has given attention to other pieces of legislation within the year, leaving little room for bills about cryptocurrency. In light of these circumstances, Galaxy Research has lost its confidence regarding the rapid passage of the CLARITY Act through the Senate.
A second issue brought up by Galaxy Research is the debate about ethics guidelines for lawmakers and the measures designed to tackle illegal financing. According to Thorn, these questions remain unresolved and must be settled for the bill to proceed.
Even with the downgrade in chances of gaining approval, Galaxy Research still sees good prospects for the bill’s future. According to Thorn, the lower estimate was due to scheduling issues and not a drop in support for crypto regulations.
Why the CLARITY Act Is Important for Crypto Markets
The CLARITY Act is deemed to be among the most important cryptocurrency bills that are being debated in Washington at present. The bill seeks to set out the regulatory scope for both the SEC and CFTC.
According to the model, digital currencies that will be considered as commodities will be within the purview of the CFTC, whereas digital currencies deemed as securities will be under the domain of the SEC.
It is stated by supporters that clear federal regulations will lower uncertainty among crypto companies, increase innovation within the US, and keep such businesses from relocating abroad.
As earlier reported by Senator Cynthia Lummis, mid-July is the deadline for passing any market structure legislation regarding crypto to be brought before the Senate. This report has raised hopes within the industry that there may be a move towards setting a full framework.
But then again, according to the recent evaluation by Galaxy Research, the timetable will be affected. The key point here is that Thorn said that the decreased probability is due to issues with the scheduling process and other bills in Congress.
According to the new information coming out of Galaxy Research, although regulatory certainty is a key focus area for the crypto industry in Washington, the passage of the CLARITY Act may take more time than expected.
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