Trump–Pezeshkian peace memo puts Iran enrichment end at 74.5% on Polymarket

Trump–Pezeshkian Interim Peace Memorandum Pushes Polymarket Toward “Yes” on Iran Ending Uranium Enrichment

An interim U.S.-Iran peace memorandum signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has sharpened attention on whether Tehran could make further commitments on its nuclear program. On Polymarket, the contract “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” was priced at 74.5% for Yes on March 31.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “Yes” at 74.5% that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by Dec. 31, versus 25.5% for “No.”
• The repricing follows news that Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signed an interim peace memorandum said to take immediate effect.
• The market is scheduled to resolve on 2026-12-31, with odds unchanged over the past 24 hours and 7 days (0.0 points each).

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed an interim peace memorandum early Thursday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signed the same document in Versailles following the end of the G7 summit. The agreement was described as taking immediate effect, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow Iran to sell oil without sanctions. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country helped mediate the deal, said it would enter into force immediately and that the U.S. would lift a naval blockade of Iranian ports. A U.S. official later read out details of a 14-point outline, including language about an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and a target to reach a final deal within 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. The outline also described waivers for Iranian crude and related services and said Iran reaffirmed it would not procure or develop nuclear weapons.

Polymarket Odds and Liquidity: “End Enrichment by Dec. 31” at 74.5% Yes on $751,942 Matched Volume

Polymarket shows $751,942 in matched volume on the binary contract “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” with Yes at 74.5% and No at 25.5% as of the latest snapshot. With a flat 24-hour and 7-day change of 0.0 points, pricing signals a steady consensus rather than a fast-moving repricing. The spread implies traders remain meaningfully skewed toward the Yes outcome at current liquidity.

Traders will watch for any formal language or timelines tied to uranium enrichment in follow-on negotiations ahead of the market’s 2026-12-31 resolution date.

Beyond the Iran Nuclear Bet: Other High-Interest Geopolitical and Macro Contracts on Polymarket Today

Beyond the longer-dated nuclear timeline, traders are also clustering into faster-resolution offshoots and spillover risk gauges on Polymarket, including 58.5% on “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” on $6.87 million in volume. Shipping-linked flow remains a separate focal point, with “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” at 91.5% for No on $27.17 million, while nearer-dated information risk is being priced in “US-Iran deal text released by…?” with June 19 at 100.0% on $6.31 million.

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 74.5%
• Volume: ~$751,942
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 74.5% / No 25.5%; No: Yes 74.5% / No 25.5%
• 24h change: +0.0 pp

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