Circle stock reverses 7% rally after mixed Q2 results

Circle stock erased an early 7% rally and fell nearly 3% after mixed second-quarter results and renewed concerns about weaker USDC activity and shrinking margins.

Circle earnings beat on profit but miss on revenue

Circle Internet Group reported mixed results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, giving investors competing signals about the USDC issuer’s financial performance.

Quarterly revenue reached $701 million, falling short of the $717 million expected by Wall Street. However, earnings per share came in at $0.18, slightly above the consensus forecast of $0.17.

Net income also exceeded expectations. Circle generated $48 million in profit during the quarter, compared with analysts’ estimate of $45.8 million.

The initial reaction was positive, with CRCL shares rising about 7% shortly after the report. The rally faded as investors assessed the revenue miss and weaker operating trends underneath the headline profit figures.

Circle stock subsequently fell around 3%, trading near $61.39 after reaching $63.25 during the previous session. The shares have now lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

Mizuho maintains bearish $45 Circle stock target

Mizuho kept its Underperform rating on Circle and maintained a $45 price target following the earnings release. That target implies a decline of roughly 27% from the stock’s current level.

The brokerage pointed to a sequential decline in USDC circulation and a 31% quarter-over-quarter drop in on-chain transaction volume. These figures suggest that stablecoin activity weakened during the reporting period despite Circle’s profit beat.

Margin pressure presented another concern. Circle’s adjusted EBITDA margin fell 329 basis points from the same quarter last year, indicating that the company retained less operating profit from its revenue.

Mizuho’s assessment appears to have contributed to the reversal by shifting attention away from the earnings beat and toward Circle’s underlying operating performance. The bearish rating also contrasts with management’s stronger full-year outlook.

Circle raises USDC and revenue guidance

Circle expects USDC circulation to grow at a compound annual rate of 40%, signaling confidence that demand for its dollar-backed stablecoin will recover and expand over a longer period.

The company also raised its forecast for other revenue to between $310 million and $330 million. Its previous guidance called for $150 million to $170 million, making the revised range one of the strongest positive updates in the report.

Circle increased its RLDC margin forecast to between 41.7% and 43.7%, up from the previous range of 38% to 40%. Adjusted operating expense guidance remained unchanged at $570 million to $585 million.

The outlook gives investors a potential growth case, but Circle must demonstrate that higher USDC circulation can translate into stronger transaction activity and more durable margins.

CRCL stock tests support near $58

CRCL’s daily chart remains bearish after the stock retreated from its May peak near $140.04. Shares are now trading just above the major support level at $58.04, which marks the bottom of the chart’s measured Fibonacci range.

The Aroon indicator shows sellers remain in control. Aroon Down stands at 85.71%, compared with an Aroon Up reading of 21.43%. The Awesome Oscillator also remains below zero at minus 5.53, confirming that momentum has not yet turned positive.

A decisive break below $58.04 could extend the decline and bring Mizuho’s $45 target into greater focus. If buyers defend support, CRCL would first need to reclaim the $63 to $65 region before attempting a recovery toward the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $75.59.

Circle also secured a limited-purpose trust charter from the New York Department of Financial Services on July 31. The approval places Circle Internet Trust Company under state oversight for USDC issuance, adding a US regulatory catalyst as investors weigh the company’s mixed financial and operating signals.