Kalshi and Polymarket Face Spotify Pushback After Fake Streams Settled Bets

TLDR

• Spotify asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove branding after manipulated streams affected music betting markets.
• More than 500,000 artificial streams pushed Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings” higher before Spotify completed review process.
• Kalshi’s Spotify song market reportedly drew $3 million before disputed data was used for settlement.
• Prediction markets face scrutiny when bettors can influence the real-world metrics used to resolve contracts.
• Spotify said streaming services use detection systems and do not pay royalties on manipulated streams.

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Spotify has asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding from their platforms after manipulated music streams were reportedly used in prediction market settlements, according to Bloomberg.

The streaming company also asked both platforms to make clear that they do not have a partnership with Spotify, after inflated song-ranking data affected markets tied to Spotify charts.

Bloomberg reported that Spotify removed more than 500,000 artificial streams that had pushed Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings” higher on its rankings during June.

The inflated figures had already been used to settle a Kalshi market on the most-streamed Spotify song in the United States, a contract that drew about $3 million in trading.

Spotify Challenges Branding on Betting Platforms

Spotify contacted Kalshi and Polymarket after identifying artificial streaming activity linked to song rankings used for prediction market outcomes. The company requested that its logo be removed and that users be informed there was no formal partnership with the streaming service.

The case centers on Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings,” which was lifted on Spotify’s charts by more than 500,000 artificial streams, according to Bloomberg. Those figures were reportedly included before Spotify completed its review of the suspicious activity.

Spotify removes 500,000 streams from number one hit due to suspicious Kalshi bets https://t.co/V6Ck33aApq pic.twitter.com/7ioPQLFa7R

— Far Out Magazine (@FarOutMag) July 3, 2026

Kalshi is reportedly investigating the matter, while Polymarket did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment. The Block also said it contacted the companies for comment after the report was published.

Fake Streams Raise Questions Over Market Settlement

The Kalshi market tied to Spotify’s most-streamed US song in June had attracted about $3 million in trading volume before the issue became public. Todd was declared among the winners based on published figures that were later reviewed by Spotify.

Before the suspicious activity began, Kalshi odds on Todd finishing with June’s top song were below 3%, according to Bloomberg. That price meant traders who entered at early levels could have earned about 30 times their stake if the market settled in their favor.

The incident has drawn attention to how prediction markets use external data to settle contracts. When the underlying data can be manipulated, traders may have a financial incentive to influence the event rather than only forecast it.

Prediction Markets Face Data Integrity Test

Artificial streaming has long been a challenge for Spotify and other music platforms, usually because it can be used to increase artist rankings or royalty-related activity. Prediction markets add another financial reason for users to attempt to shape streaming numbers.

Bloomberg cited other cases in which real-world data connected to prediction markets came under scrutiny. One involved an interactive Russia-Ukraine war map used for a Polymarket contract, while another involved reported concerns over weather-station data tied to a Paris temperature market.

A Spotify spokesperson told Bloomberg that all streaming services face changing forms of stream manipulation. The spokesperson said Spotify uses detection and mitigation systems for manipulated streams and does not pay royalties on those streams.

The dispute places Kalshi and Polymarket under renewed attention as prediction markets continue expanding into entertainment, politics, finance, sports, and other measurable events. The Spotify case shows that markets tied to public rankings may face settlement challenges when the data source is revised after manipulation reviews.