TLDR
- Ford reports Q2 2026 earnings after the bell Tuesday, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.35–$0.36 and automotive revenue around $45.86–$47.35 billion
- Both figures would represent year-over-year declines — revenue down roughly 2–5%, EPS down slightly vs. 2025
- Jefferies upgraded Ford to Buy from Hold yesterday, setting a $17.50 price target; stock trades around $14.88
- Investors are watching whether management raises full-year guidance, with adjusted EBIT currently forecast at $8.5B–$10.5B
- The Novelis aluminum supplier restarted production last month, which should help normalize F-150 output
Ford Motor reports second-quarter results after the closing bell Tuesday, and for once, the bar isn’t set particularly high — which might actually be the point.
Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of around $0.35–$0.36 and automotive revenue of roughly $45.86 billion. Both would represent year-over-year declines from Q2 2025, when Ford posted $46.94 billion in automotive revenue and $2.14 billion in adjusted EBIT.
The stock is trading at $14.88, up about 1.34% on Tuesday ahead of the print.
Analysts increasingly see Q2 as a cyclical trough rather than a sign of structural damage. EPS estimates have risen 3.7% over the past 60 days, a quiet signal that confidence has been building as the quarter progressed.
The upgrade from Jefferies yesterday added some momentum. Analyst Philippe Houchois moved Ford from Hold to Buy with a $17.50 price target, citing improving conditions and the possibility that management raises guidance at this report.
Guidance Is the Main Event
Ford’s current 2026 guidance includes adjusted EBIT of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, free cash flow of $5–$6 billion, and capex of $9.5–$10.5 billion. The company raised that guidance in April, factoring in expected tariff refunds.
Houchois believes Ford could push toward the upper end of that EBIT range, pointing to healthy U.S. auto market conditions and normalizing production volumes.
June U.S. auto sales came in 7.7% higher year-over-year, which provides a solid demand backdrop heading into the second half.
F-150 Production Back on Track
One of the cleaner stories heading into this report is the Novelis situation. The aluminum supplier — which feeds Ford’s F-150 production line — restarted operations at its New York plant last month after two fires shut it down.
That disruption weighed on F-Series volumes throughout the first half of the year. With supply normalizing, analysts expect production to recover through H2.
Investors will also look at Ford Blue, the traditional ICE vehicle division, for margin improvement. That unit has been expected to carry the load while Model e, Ford’s EV segment, continues to post losses.
Ford has beaten revenue estimates in five straight quarters and topped EPS expectations in seven of the last ten.
The earnings call is set for 5 p.m. ET Tuesday.
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