Jonathan Kuminga’s Timberwolves Contract Exemplifies NBA’s Free-Agency Problem

The Free-Agency Financial Crunch

During their standoff with Kuminga, the Warriors reportedly offered him two contract structures, according to Charania and ESPN’s Anthony Slater. There was the two-year, $46.8 million deal which he took, and a three-year, $75.2 million contract with a third-year team option, which Kuminga declined to “maintain a higher level of control over his immediate Warriors future,” as Charania reported at the time.

That contract structure made it clear that Kuminga intended to leave the Warriors ASAP, but to their credit, they didn’t bury him on the bench. He wound up averaging 12.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 23.8 minutes per game across 20 appearances before the Warriors shipped him to the Atlanta Hawks ahead of the February trade deadline.

Kuminga put up similar numbers during his 16 regular-season games with the Hawks, and he averaged 13.7 points while shooting 48.3% from the floor in 26.0 minutes per game during their first-round loss to the eventual-champion New York Knicks. Although he’s neither an elite three-point shooter nor a defender—in other words, he’s the antithesis of a three-and-D wing—6’7″ forwards who can average 15-plus points per game still typically wind up getting paid.

Kuminga proved to be the exception to that rule this offseason. He chose a smaller deal with the Timberwolves over a larger three-year deal worth $12 million-plus annually with the Los Angeles Lakers “to give him the ability to have more control of his future and possibly jump back in free agency next summer.”

Kuminga could have received a guaranteed $24.3 million from the Warriors in 2026-27 had he accepted the three-year, $75.2 million framework that they offered him. Instead, he’s now set to earn less than $6.1 million this coming season. He has a $6.4 million player option in 2027-28 rather than a $26.1 million team option, but the end result likely would have been the same either way: him becoming an unrestricted free agent again in 2027.

Perhaps Kuminga and his agent, Aaron Turner, simply misread the free-agent market for two straight offseasons. After all, Turner and Kuminga “spent much of the summer requesting a player option as part of their preferred deals” from the Warriors last offseason, according to Charania and Slater, “showing a willingness to dip down into the $20 million per year range for it.” However, they believed “a team-option deal should cost around $30 million per year.”

One year later, Kuminga took less than one-third of what he was hoping to receive last summer, as his options quickly began to dwindle once the other free-agent dominos started falling around the league.

Kuminga’s experience both as a restricted free agent and an unrestricted free agent could wind up being a cautionary tale for other first-round picks who aren’t satisfied with their teams’ rookie-scale extension offers.

Is Free Agency Worth The Risk?

A handful of players still do cash in as free agents every year. Peyton Watson just landed a four-year, $88 million deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers via sign-and-trade. The Los Angeles Lakers handed out a trio of huge contracts to Walker Kessler (four years, $130 million), Quentin Grimes (four years, $60 million) and Sandro Mamukelashvili (four years, $52 million) before re-signing Austin Reaves to a four-year, $184.75 million deal.

However, the number of bank-breaking deals has steadily declined in recent years despite the salary cap increasing steadily.

This summer, Kessler, Reaves, Trae Young and Ayo Dosunmu were the only four free agents to receive nine-figure deals, and Kessler was the only one of that quartet to changes teams. Last offseason was even worse, as only three free agents landed $100 million-plus deals since the Brooklyn Nets were the lone team with significant cap space.

Compare that to 2019 when 12 players landed nine-figure deals, seven of whom changed teams while doing so.

The NBA changed its extension rules in its latest collective bargaining agreement to allow teams to offer players more money before they even become free agents. In turn, more players are eschewing the chance to test the open market entirely.

As the top-tier targets start preemptively flying off the board, teams have less incentive to preserve salary-cap space for the offseason. Some have even begun participating in “pre-agency,” or acquiring a soon-to-be free agent at the preceding year’s trade deadline to secure their Bird rights. In doing so, they’re able to offer those players one extra year on their next contract and higher annual raises than any other free-agent suitor.

This offseason wasn’t quite as bleak as last year’s, but it wasn’t exactly teeming with cap-space teams, either. The Lakers, Nets and Chicago Bulls were the only teams that entered free agency with significant spending power, and the Lakers blew through all of theirs within the first 24 hours of free agency.

That forced other free agents to get creative, as evidenced by Watson’s sign-and-trade with the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Kuminga wound up settling for less money than Kelly Oubre Jr. (two years, $16.5 million) and Bennedict Mathurin (two years, $16.0 million). In fact, Jock Landale’s one-year, $14.1 million deal with the Atlanta Hawks is worth more than Kuminga’s entire two-year contract.

As more players get burned in free agency, others around the league may rethink whether they want to test the market at all. If even more players begin to sign extensions instead of testing free agency, that will further reduce the number of cap-space teams each summer. It’s becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point.

Kuminga is just the latest example of that.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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