Bitcoin (BTC) price is up by 0.31% today, August 28, to trade at $79,699 at the time of writing. The slight gains come ahead of a keynote address by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Traders are expecting the US dollar to gain after this meeting as they price in the chances that Warsh will be hawkish.
Markets Bet on Dollar Gains as Bitcoin Stalls
Analyst Walter Bloomberg notes that 57% of the dollar options flows this week suggest investors are expecting the US dollar to gain. The analyst notes that this percentage is an increase from the 43% seen last week.
This positioning coincides with an increase in the value of the dollar index (DXY) from 98.56 on August 21 to 99.19 at the time of writing.
Analyst Walter opines that the rising value of the US dollar and the rising options by traders expecting the index to rise suggest that traders are preparing for a hawkish message from Warsh when he takes the stage at Jackson Hole. Such a speech could pull Bitcoin price down.
On August 27, the Kansas City Fed President, Jeff Schmid, opined that inflation remained stubborn and sticky, adding that the current inflation rate of 3.50% to 3.75% remained accommodative, with those remarks trimming odds of the Fed trimming rates.
As CoinGape reported, US PCE inflation came in at 3.3%, with this being higher than the estimated 3.2%. Prediction markets also show a 57% chance of the Fed hiking rates in 2026, causing Bitcoin to stall.
Warsh’s speech will likely influence these odds depending on whether the Fed Chair gives a hawkish or a dovish speech.
BTC Price Forecast Amid Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
Bitcoin price is moving within an ascending channel on the two-hour chart. This channel suggests that the uptrend is strong, as BTC price creates higher highs and higher lows.
However, BTC price has moved below the midline of this channel, suggesting that the uptrend is becoming weak. If the price drops below the support at the lower trendline, Bitcoin could drop to $77,829.
The RSI reading of 52 suggests that the momentum is neutral. This could change after Warsh’s speech, whereby a hawkish tone could increase the selling pressure and push the RSI down, while a dovish remark could cause the RSI to create a higher high.
The AO bars that are red and shrinking in size also support a bearish future Bitcoin outlook. These bars suggest that the bullish momentum is becoming weak.
However, if the buying pressure returns and the price of Bitcoin begins to rise, it could test the psychological resistance at $80,000 again before attempting another move beyond $81,000.
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