XRP Pivot Point: Why the $1.25 Price Level Matters Most Before Sept. 15

The XRP price has stabilized in the $1.40–$1.45 range after a phase of active growth, during which the asset briefly tested the $1.70 mark. Against the backdrop of this temporary pause, $1.25 is emerging as the main pivot point of the current cycle.

According to technical indicators by TradingView and on-chain exchange data by CryptoQuant, large holders, or “whales,” may view this price zone as a critical threshold for launching the second stage of accumulation ahead of the regulatory developments expected on Sept. 15.

On the weekly XRP chart, the $1.25 mark serves as the main support zone. This zone is where the middle Bollinger Band and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level intersect. The Fibonacci grid is based on the August price impulse, during which the token rose from $1.00 to $1.70.

In this context, a test of the $1.25 range is viewed by some market participants as a likely and healthy technical cooldown following the formation of a local high.

According to on-chain reports, it was during this rise from $1.00 to $1.70 that large investors carried out the first stage of aggressive buying: the cohort of wallets holding between one million and 10 million XRP increased its positions by 642 million tokens.

Major players wait for discounts, while US Senate prepares regulatory breakthrough

Now, according to data from analytics platform CryptoQuant, conditions for a temporary pullback are forming in the market. At the time of the recent local peak, XRP reserves on Binance rose sharply to 2.6245 billion tokens. The short-term increase in reserves points to profit-taking by some retail investors near the $1.45 level.

Whales may use this local increase in exchange supply to carry out the second stage of their strategy by placing new buy orders around the key $1.25 level.

At the same time, the broader trend confirms a supply shortage — over the past year, Binance’s total reserves have declined from 3.1 billion to 2.6 billion XRP as large investors continue to methodically remove freely available supply from the market.

The main factor behind the expected volatility is Sept. 15. On that day, the US Senate is scheduled to hold a critical procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, which is intended to define the legal status of digital assets and divide regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC.

The market’s current behavior may indicate that large wallets intend to complete the formation of their positions at a discount near the identified pivot point immediately before US lawmakers make their decision.