Bitcoin conviction buyers increase holdings 69% in Q1 despite drop

ARK Invest reports a 69% increase in Bitcoin held by conviction buyers in Q1, even as the price dropped 22%. Bitcoin price predictions for April 26 sit at 99.8% YES.

Institutional investors treated the Q1 price decline as a buying opportunity. The market for April 26 Bitcoin price predictions holds at 99.8% YES. The term structure shows no movement over the past day, indicating stable expectations.

During the quarter’s 22% drawdown, institutional investors added to their positions, treating Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty rather than a speculative bet. This matches the recent $458 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs. The market is trading $13,175 in actual USDC daily, with $67,380 required to move the price by 5 percentage points.

The 69% jump in conviction buyer holdings points to a shift in how large investors are positioning around Bitcoin. At current levels, traders are pricing in sustained institutional support. Buying YES shares at 99.8¢ offers almost no upside, but the near-certainty reflects broad confidence that Bitcoin stays above $68K through April 26.

Traders should watch for statements from Jerome Powell that could change monetary policy expectations. Major moves by institutional holders or geopolitical developments could also shift the odds.

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