Bitcoin ETFs Could Follow Gold ETF Cycles Over 22 Years Strong

By Amrin Sanjay | Edited By Ammar Raza,July 17, 2026, 5:30 PM

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could experience long-term market cycles similar to those seen in gold ETFs over the past two decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

In a recent market analysis, Balchunas argued that the history of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) may provide one of the closest historical roadmaps for understanding the evolution of BTC ETFs as institutional investment products.

22 Years of Gold ETFs Offer Bitcoin Market Lessons

According to Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence, both gold ETFs and BTC ETFs are investment wrappers around assets that do not generate cash flow. Unlike stocks or bonds, their performance depends largely on investor demand rather than corporate earnings, interest payments, or government support.

Balchunas wrote, “Bitcoin ETFs may be following the same script: spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors’ patience.”

He added that despite prolonged downturns, each major cycle for gold ETFs eventually established a higher asset peak, suggesting that long-term adoption can continue despite temporary setbacks.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Holds Above $64K as ETF Inflows Reach $107.8M

GLD Performance Shows Cyclical Institutional Demand

Bloomberg Intelligence data cited by Balchunas shows that SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) experienced dramatic asset swings over the past decade.

GLD’s assets reportedly climbed to around $76 billion, declined to nearly $22 billion, recovered toward $84 billion, fell again to roughly $48 billion, and have recently approached approximately $190 billion.

Balchunas noted another historical parallel involving ETF rankings. He stated that GLD briefly became the world’s largest ETF in 2011 before losing momentum for several years.

Similarly, he observed that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) briefly surpassed $100 billion in assets before experiencing slower asset growth following market consolidation.

Bitcoin ETFs Depend on Investor Sentiment and Flows

Unlike traditional equity investments, Bitcoin ETFs derive their value from the underlying cryptocurrency and investor demand. Balchunas explained that both gold and BTC have relatively limited new supply, meaning strong inflows can produce significant price appreciation when demand accelerates.

However, he cautioned that institutional demand rarely moves in a straight line. “Demand can be fickle and come in waves versus steady,” Balchunas wrote, emphasizing that investors should expect volatility even as long-term adoption increases.

Institutional Adoption Continues to Shape BTC ETFs

The comparison is significant because Bitcoin ETFs remain in the early stages of institutional adoption compared with gold ETFs, which have operated for more than two decades. Pension funds, wealth managers, and registered investment advisers continue evaluating BTC ETFs as regulated investment vehicles within diversified portfolios.

While no historical comparison guarantees future performance, Balchunas’ analysis provides investors with a broader framework for understanding market cycles. As ETF adoption expands globally, future inflows, regulatory developments, and institutional participation will likely remain key drivers of BTC ETF growth.

Also Read: Bitcoin OG Holder Moves 5,908 BTC After Eight Years of Dormancy

This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.