Bitcoin’s longer-term price structure is starting to look more stable, with analyst Willy Woo pointing to a well-known technical setup that historically has aligned with major bear-market endings. Woo argues that Bitcoin’s latest monthly “Fisher Transform” signal marks a new phase of trend reversal—though he also cautions that clean bottoms are not guaranteed and some consolidation is still possible.
Writing in a Friday update on X, Woo highlighted that the Fisher Transform indicator produced a monthly bullish crossover in August—only the fourth time this has happened in Bitcoin’s history—suggesting the market may have already formed its next macro floor.
Key takeaways
- Willy Woo says Bitcoin’s Fisher Transform produced a monthly bullish crossover in August—only the fourth such event on record.
- Woo links prior monthly crossovers to bear-market bottoms, citing late 2022 as an example when the indicator reached about -3.83.
- A weekly bullish divergence in Fisher continues to develop, echoing the pattern seen during the final six months of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.
- Woo notes the signal tends to be more reliable near bear-market bottoms because speculative churn is typically lower than during bull phases.
Why the Fisher Transform matters for market timing
Woo used the Fisher Transform, a trend-strength indicator developed in 2002, to assess whether Bitcoin’s broader trajectory has shifted. The Fisher Transform works by smoothing price action into a form that is easier to interpret as trend conditions change.
The method applies a log-based transform to correct for the way raw price tends to linger near extreme values. In practice, the Fisher Transform is plotted as two lines: the Fisher line and a trigger line derived from it, delayed by one period. Both lines oscillate around a central zero line, with crossovers between the Fisher and trigger lines typically interpreted as a signal of regime change.
According to Woo, when these two trend lines cross upward on monthly time frames, the occurrence has repeatedly coincided with bear-market bottoms—events that historically precede larger macro uptrends.
August’s monthly crossover: “3 for 3” with a fourth added
In Woo’s read-through, the key development is the timing and frequency of Bitcoin’s monthly Fisher bullish crossover. He states that a sharp upward reversal—where the Fisher and trigger lines intersect—has matched bear-market bottoming phases on monthly charts, and that the latest August cross appears to extend this track record.
Woo specifically points to the crossover occurring during July at around -2.26 on the Fisher Transform scale, stating that it would represent the fourth recorded bullish monthly crossover if it plays out as history suggests. He also frames the pattern as “3 for 3 without fake out,” before adding the newest event as a potential extension rather than a one-off.
Importantly, Woo does not claim that the crossover automatically prevents additional volatility. He notes that even when the indicator turns, price can still consolidate and potentially test lower levels before a more durable macro advance takes hold. He compares this to other cycles where Fisher showed a bearish crossover during bull markets—followed later by a fresh bullish signal—implying that the macro signal can precede full directional confirmation.
Bear-market signals may be “cleaner” than bull-market ones
Woo’s reasoning goes beyond chart math. He argues that the reliability of the Fisher Transform’s reversal timing depends on market participants. In his view, long-term bull phases often include more speculative activity—traders reacting aggressively to short-term swings—creating choppier conditions and increasing the odds of “fake out” signals.
By contrast, in bear-market bottom zones, he says speculative participation is largely reduced. When buy pressure returns because value buyers step in, the price reversal becomes less noisy, which can make trend signals such as Fisher crossovers easier to interpret.
That distinction is central to how Woo frames the current setup: even if the indicator has turned, investors should still expect that a bottom can involve time-consuming stabilization rather than an immediate straight-line recovery.
Weekly bullish divergence mirrors 2022’s late-stage pattern
Alongside the monthly crossover, Woo also emphasized a bullish divergence developing on weekly time frames. In this setup, Fisher continues to form higher lows while Bitcoin’s price prints lower lows—an often-cited sign that downward momentum is weakening even as the market remains trapped in a drawdown.
Woo says Fisher hit a swing low near -2.85 at the end of December last year, when BTC/USD was around the $90,000 area. Since then, he reports that Fisher has produced a series of higher lows while price has not followed suit. The divergence matters because it suggests deterioration in selling pressure may be occurring underneath the surface.
Critically, Woo links this current divergence structure to what was seen during Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. He notes that a similar Fisher bullish divergence appeared as the prior bear market moved into its final months—then proceeded to coincide with the eventual transition out of the downtrend.
What remains uncertain: July’s $57,000 area and buyer behavior
Even with the technical backdrop improving, Woo and other onchain-driven observations leave room for doubt. The article points to ongoing uncertainty about whether recent lows near $57,000 on July 1 truly marked a full cycle bottom. Earlier onchain analysis referenced in the coverage suggested that while some metrics have produced bear-market reversal signals, there may not yet be consistent confirmation from traditional “buyer interest” behavior.
Woo himself previously flagged a “lack of typical buyer interest” at those lows, arguing that accumulation appeared dominated by a smaller set of large-volume investors rather than broad-based demand. That matters for how traders interpret reversals: a market can bounce on limited buying, but more durable cycle transitions usually require sustained participation across the market.
For now, the key question is whether the monthly Fisher crossover will translate into a macro uptrend rather than only a temporary turn. Readers should watch whether Fisher continues to confirm on higher time frames and whether price action starts to align with the divergence signals on weekly charts—especially if Bitcoin tests deeper support before any sustained break higher.
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