Triple Witching 2026: $7 Trillion Expires Today and History Says Be Careful

TLDR

• Around $7 trillion in US options notional value expires today in a triple witching event
• This ranks as the second-largest expiry on record, per Citadel Securities
• 60% of the expiry occurs at the market open, per Citadel’s Scott Rubner
• Options positioning is acting as a cushion, meaning dips may be absorbed rather than accelerated
• The S&P 500 is in a short-term bounce but faces a hawkish Fed and weak September seasonality

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Today marks one of the biggest options expiry days in market history, with roughly $7 trillion in US options set to expire.

Today’s $7 Trillion quad-witching is the 2nd biggest ever pic.twitter.com/JDP9rCVMKW

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 18, 2026

The event is known as triple witching, when monthly S&P 500 index options and single stock options all expire at the same time. Citadel Securities says this is the second-largest such event on record.

Scott Rubner and his market intelligence team at Citadel flagged that 60% of the expiry happens at the open. That concentration of activity can shift market behavior quickly.

What Triple Witching Means for Markets

When these positions expire or roll forward, the forces that have helped keep price moves calm can change fast. Citadel described this as a “potential reset in the market’s technical backdrop.”

That reset can leave markets more sensitive to underlying order flows after expiry.

Looking at historical data from 2000 to 2026, roughly three out of every four September triple witching periods finished lower five trading days later. That is a pattern worth watching.

The S&P 500 tracker known as SPY is sitting near 762.70. Dealer gamma is positive at around $883 million, which means positioning is currently acting more like a support than a pressure point.

The gamma flip level sits at 761.34. Above that level, the market stays relatively range-bound and supported.

Below 761.34, support weakens and downside moves can get more unpredictable. Below 760, the historically bearish September triple witching setup becomes more relevant.

The Macro Picture

Markets moved higher after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The hike was expected by 92% of traders tracked by the Fedwatch tool, so some of the negative impact may have already been priced in.

The US Dollar Index has shown signs of pulling back, which can give equities some breathing room in the short term.

Heavy short positioning in the market may also be contributing to the current bounce, as traders cover those short bets.

However, analysts note that a short-term relief rally does not undo the broader pressures: a hawkish Fed, unresolved energy inflation, and weak seasonal trends for September.

The key test for the S&P 500 is whether it can hold the 760 to 762 zone and push above 765. That level is the next options resistance.

If the index loses its current support band and then gets rejected from below, the short-term recovery could stall. If it holds, the next challenge is clearing the descending resistance zone.