CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin is unlikely to deliver another 10x rally this cycle. Instead, he expects a milder 3–5x move followed by a softer bear market, according to a post on X.
For Bitcoin holders used to the cryptocurrency’s extreme boom-and-bust cycles, that would mark a significant shift. Fewer moonshots could also mean fewer brutal 80% drawdowns — and Ju argues that trade-off is a sign of market maturity, not decline.
Why the Extremes Are Shrinking
In his September 22 post on X, Ju centers on Bitcoin’s changing ownership base. When retail dominated and the Bitcoin market was smaller, speculative “hot money” drove explosive rallies and equally violent crashes.
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“Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes, CryptoQuant founder says. “The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside.”
Ki Young Ju points to CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, as evidence.
Cycle tops and bottoms are forming at higher profitability levels than in past cycles, meaning fewer investors are getting wiped out at the bottom or overextended at the top.
The clearest on-chain evidence, Ju says, is that MVRV — a ratio comparing Bitcoin’s market value to holders’ cost basis — never dropped below 1 this cycle.
In practice, that means even at the cycle’s lows, the average holder stayed above average on-chain cost basis. Some individual investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater.
What’s Supporting the Market Now
Ju points to three other signals that he sees as supportive of the market. Bitcoin’s realized cap is rising, suggesting fresh capital is entering the market rather than existing coins simply changing hands at higher prices.
At the same time, long-term “OG” whales have stopped selling, reducing a source of potential selling pressure.
Large futures traders also opened long positions near recent lows, suggesting that bigger players were positioning for a recovery rather than rushing to exit the market.
Ju also points to the 365-day moving average of the PnL Index, a measure that typically lags behind price movements.
The indicator is now showing a notable turn, which he interprets as a sign of a broader market shift rather than a short-term price fluctuation.
“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling,” Ki Young Ju adds. “It means the trade-off has changed.”
According to him, less 10x upside volatility also means fewer 80% crashes, which can make Bitcoin more attractive to patient, long-term investors rather than short-term speculators.
What to Watch
Ki Young Ju’s thesis depends on the data continuing to support it. Watch whether MVRV stays above 1, realized cap keeps rising, and large Bitcoin holders and futures traders maintain their current positions.
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