Bitcoin has surrendered a post-inflation rally above $85,500 to trade around $83,500, according to ViaBTC’s Jeff Ko, as analysts have identified $82,000 as the key support level entering October.
Summary
- Ko says Bitcoin reversed its entire gain after jumping more than 2% following the PCE release.
- Zhang places Bitcoin’s October range at $78,000–$95,000, with $87,500 as the main breakout level.
- Institutional buying must outpace long-term holder and miner selling to sustain gains, according to Zhang.
- Both analysts identify U.S. employment and inflation reports as major tests for Bitcoin this month.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, and Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s October performance will depend on institutional demand and U.S. economic data, with both identifying $82,000 as a key downside level.
In Ko’s account, Bitcoin rose more than 2% immediately after the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation release, briefly moving above $85,500 before giving back the advance. Zhang’s October forecast puts the trading range between $78,000 and $95,000, conditional on demand holding up against inflation and interest-rate risks.
Bitcoin’s $82,000 support sits near liquidation exposure
For Ko, $82,000 matters because liquidation clusters become much thinner below that price. Zhang places the main downside liquidation zone between $82,000 and $82,500 and warns that losing the area could accelerate a decline toward $80,000.
Earlier CoinGlass data showed a similar concentration of leveraged positions. A Sep. 29 report identified a dense liquidation band around $82,300–$82,600, with another concentration near $85,400–$85,700 above the market.
Under Zhang’s bullish scenario, Bitcoin must hold $82,000 and reclaim $87,500 before a move toward $95,000 becomes possible. She also sees a break above $87,500 increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze, while a sustained decline below $80,000 would invalidate her seasonal bullish setup.
Although October has historically favored Bitcoin, Zhang cautioned against treating the calendar as sufficient reason to expect gains.
“October has a strong historical track record for Bitcoin, but seasonality alone is not an investment thesis.”
The research lead puts Bitcoin’s historical median October return at roughly 11%–14%. In her assessment, ETF inflows, falling exchange balances and corporate purchases support the bullish case, while expensive oil, high interest rates and renewed inflation pressure remain the main obstacles.
ETF purchases support demand but cannot guarantee a rally
On institutional activity, Zhang cited roughly $2.4 billion entering U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, followed by a sharp slowdown to $31.1 million in daily net inflows on Sep. 28. She also reported that Strategy purchased another 1,665 BTC, bringing its holdings to 847,666 BTC.
“Institutional demand can provide a floor, but it cannot guarantee an October rally on its own.”
For Zhang, the decisive question is whether new institutional purchases can absorb profit-taking by long-term holders and sales from miners. Her assessment puts the balance between buying and selling ahead of the headline size of any single purchase.
Across the period since last week, Ko cited $2.3 billion of inflows into Bitcoin funds and $644 million into Ethereum funds. He described ETF flows as constructive despite Bitcoin’s failure to retain its post-PCE gains.
During the September advance, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received $999 million on Sep. 21 and $714.7 million on Sep. 22, according to Bitfinex figures in a Sep. 24 report on ETF buying and leverage. In that report, BTCS S.A. strategy adviser Wojciech Kaszycki said cash purchases supported the rally’s initial phase before leveraged positions began accumulating.
Kaszycki identified continued ETF subscriptions and corporate or over-the-counter purchases as necessary to sustain a move above $90,000. He also warned that holders who bought between $90,000 and $110,000 last year could sell as Bitcoin returns toward their purchase prices.
Cooler PCE readings have lowered October hike expectations
According to Ko, headline PCE rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core PCE increased 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually. Both annual readings came below the expectations he cited, at 3.7% for headline inflation and 3.3% for core.
Despite the lower readings, Ko attributed most of the difference to methodology-driven revisions rather than a genuine easing in price pressure. In his assessment, the release looked cooler on the surface without establishing that inflation had slowed to the same extent.
The October rate-hike probability nevertheless fell to 38.2% from 70.9% a week earlier, according to figures Ko cited. He placed the market-implied probability of a December hike at 86%.
Zhang’s own base case remains a quarter-point increase at the Oct. 28 Fed meeting, taking the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. She linked that forecast to inflation above 3% and renewed pressure from energy prices.
In a Sep. 29 assessment of another Fed hike, HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun warned that an October increase could lead investors to view September’s hike as the start of repeated tightening. The same report recorded the Fed’s Sep. 16 quarter-point increase to 3.75%–4.00%.
For Americans holding Bitcoin directly or through U.S. spot ETFs, Sun identified Treasury yields, fund flows and derivatives leverage as key factors affecting the market. He said higher long-term rates and tighter dollar liquidity could pressure demand.
Jobs and CPI will test rate expectations as leverage cools
Ahead of the economic releases, Zhang said derivatives leverage had eased without being fully cleared. She cited Binance Bitcoin perpetual funding near 0.0068%, compared with a seven-day average of about 0.0023%, describing positioning as positive but not extreme.
Open interest stood around $7.7 billion, down roughly 16% over a week, according to Zhang. She said the reduction lowered the risk of a market-wide wave of forced liquidations.
On the macro side, Ko cited a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield close to 5.2% and crude oil above $100. Both analysts identified the September employment report on Oct. 2 and September CPI on Oct. 14 as major upcoming releases.
A materially weaker jobs report, particularly higher unemployment alongside slower wage growth, would increase the likelihood of a Fed pause, Zhang said. Conversely, resilient employment and another firm inflation reading would support a hike, which she expects could pressure crypto through higher inflation-adjusted yields and a stronger dollar.
Beyond Bitcoin, Ko said Ethereum had built relative strength against BTC over the past three months. He would want the ETH/BTC ratio to break decisively above approximately 0.032 before treating that strength as confirmed.
Later in the month, Zhang’s calendar includes the first estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP and September PCE on Oct. 29. She expects those releases to influence December rate expectations because they arrive after the October policy decision.
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