Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal technical test, with one setup pointing to a potential rebound from $78,000 toward $83,000-$84,000 and another showing the 50-week moving average as the next major hurdle. The outlook remains conditional: holding short-term support could extend the recovery, while rejection near $80,350 would keep downside risk in play.
Bitcoin Could Retest $78,000 Before Another Move Higher
Bitcoin may not be finished on the upside despite its recent pullback, according to trader Kaz, who sees the $78,000 area as a potential launch point for another advance next week.
Bitcoin BTC $78K Support and $83K-$84K Target. Source: Kaz on X
The chart highlights a support zone around $78,000-$78,400, where Kaz expects buyers could step in after the latest decline. Rather than calling for an immediate rally, the projected path allows Bitcoin to trade unevenly around that area before momentum improves.
A recovery through roughly $79,200-$80,000 would be an early sign that buyers are regaining control. From there, the previous-day high near $82,000 becomes the main resistance level visible on the chart.
The setup also marks an area around $81,600 as a possible short-squeeze zone. If Bitcoin pushes through that region and clears $82,000, Kaz’s projected $83,000-$84,000 target would come into focus.
The bullish case depends on $78,000 holding. A decisive break below the highlighted zone would weaken the expected rebound and raise the risk of a deeper correction.
Kaz also expects Bitcoin could eventually trade toward $74,000-$75,000 around late September or October during what he described as a reversal pivot. That is a separate, longer-term scenario rather than the immediate expectation shown on the chart.
Bitcoin Faces a Major Test at the 50-Week Moving Average
The broader weekly structure presents another hurdle just above current price, with Bitcoin trading close to its 50-week simple moving average.
Bitcoin BTC Weekly Moving Average Structure. Source: Super฿ro on X
The supplied weekly chart shows Bitcoin near $79,669, while the 50-week SMA sits around $80,347. That places BTC directly below a technically important resistance area.
Super฿ro said traders should keep open the possibility of a 2019-style grind through the 50-week SMA with little or no major retracement. In that scenario, Bitcoin would gradually reclaim the average instead of suffering another sharp decline first.
The analyst contrasted today’s structure with 2023. According to the post, Bitcoin’s earlier pullback from the 50-week SMA toward the 20-week SMA occurred below the 200-week average and during a bearish crossover between the 50-week and 200-week averages.
The current chart shows a different arrangement. Bitcoin remains above the 20-week SMA near $70,150 and the 200-week SMA near $64,879, while the 50-week average remains above the 200-week line.
That makes the $80,350 area the clearest near-term confirmation level. A sustained weekly move above the 50-week SMA, followed by support forming above it, would strengthen the case that Bitcoin’s recovery is developing into a broader trend move.
A rejection there would leave the market vulnerable to another retracement. The 20-week SMA near $70,150 would then become an important longer-term reference, although Bitcoin would first need to lose the nearer $78,000 support highlighted in Kaz’s short-term setup.
Taken together, the two charts define a narrow decision zone. Bitcoin needs to defend roughly $78,000 and reclaim the $80,000-$80,350 region; doing so would improve the path toward $82,000 and potentially $83,000-$84,000, while failure at either level would keep the correction scenario alive.
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