Odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 sit at 89.5% YES, up from 88% yesterday, as the US takes steps to strengthen its position ahead of the May 15 summit. Market reaction The April […]
A member of Iran’s National Security Commission warned the United States and Persian Gulf countries about Iran’s “resolve” in the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 dropped […]
Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref asserted Iran’s legal right to control the Strait of Hormuz. The market for the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 is at 8.5% YES, down […]
An alleged recording of the IRGC Navy dismissing foreign influence has increased tension around the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 is at 8.5% YES, […]
CENTCOM reports a continuing U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, with the Polymarket Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit April market tracking transit numbers for April 8-12 and odds shifting downward. Market reaction With the blockade […]
Iran and Russia have formally protested to UNESCO over missile strikes damaging Tehran’s cultural heritage, and the Iran Leadership Status market now prices a leadership change by end of 2026 at 15% YES. The protest […]
Vectis Finance has outlined a user withdrawal process following the Drift Protocol exploit, including a 30-day zero-fee subsidy. Solana’s price prediction for April 19 sits at 99.9% YES. The announcement follows an exploit that drained […]
Iran’s economy continues to deteriorate 100 days after mass protests, with severe inflation and unemployment compounded by ongoing war. Iranian regime fall by April 30 is at 1% YES. Market reaction The June 30 market […]
Hezbollah denied responsibility after a deadly attack on UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market sits at 100.0% YES. The attack on a UNIFIL patrol killed a […]
Iran dismissed Trump’s statements about concessions and maintained restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 is now at 78%, down from 90% […]
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