Trump invited Israeli PM Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun to the White House for talks, and the Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. The invitation follows public skepticism about a […]
The Pentagon’s leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. The Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 market sits at 6% YES. Market reaction The Gulf […]
OpenAI has agreed to a $20 billion deal for Cerebras chips that includes an equity stake in the company, pushing USD.AI FDV predictions to 15% YES, a 15% increase from previous expectations. Market reaction Traders […]
Dogecoin’s latest attempt to break higher has turned into a rejection at a technically important level, putting the memecoin back on watch for a retest of lower support. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, posting to X […]
President Trump’s falling out with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 has ticked up to 1.2% YES, up from 1% […]
Israeli UN envoy Danny Danon warned that Israel would react if threatened, adding friction to already strained Israel-Iran relations. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, market sits at 23.5% YES, up from […]
Trump dismissed rising inflation reports during comments from Las Vegas, and the prediction market for his upcoming Fox Business interview has shifted, with odds of him mentioning economic terms now 5% higher than previous expectations. […]
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES, up from 38% a week ago. The confirmed release moved […]
Roberto Sánchez has accused Rafael López Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. López Aliaga’s chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5% YES, down from 18% a day ago. The […]
President Pezeshkian has commended Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 9.0% YES, down from 33% a week ago. Pezeshkian’s praise for Pakistan […]
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