TLDR
- GM and Ford posted the largest US market share declines among 13 automakers tracked by Cox Automotive this year.
- Ford’s vehicle sales are projected to drop 8.8% through the first three quarters, cutting its market share to 12.5%.
- GM’s sales are expected to fall 6.2% year to date, with market share slipping to 16.7% from 17.4% a year earlier.
- Hyundai and Kia combined are projected to outsell Ford in the third quarter for the first time.
- Tesla’s year to date sales are projected to drop 18.9%, pulling its market share down to 3.0% from 3.7%.
General Motors and Ford Motor Company are set to lose more US market share than any other automaker this year. That’s according to a new forecast from Cox Automotive released Thursday.
The report tracked 13 car companies. GM and Ford posted the two steepest declines among them.
Ford’s vehicle sales are expected to drop 8.8% through the first three quarters of 2026. That would push its market share down to 12.5%, a drop of nearly a full percentage point.
GM isn’t far behind. Cox projects GM’s US sales will fall 6.2% year to date through September 30.
The firm expects GM to end the quarter with a 16.7% market share. That’s down from 17.4% a year earlier.
Detroit Three Share Hits Record Low
Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, is the exception among the three traditional Detroit automakers. Cox expects Stellantis to gain market share through the third quarter.
Still, the combined share of GM, Ford, and Stellantis is projected to hit an all time low of around 36%.
Cox economist Charlie Chesbrough said Asian brands are expected to account for more than half of US new vehicle sales for a second straight quarter. That would approach record high market share levels for the group.
Analysts point to a lack of fuel efficient models as one reason GM and Ford are struggling. Rising gas prices tied to the Iran war have pushed more buyers toward hybrids.
GM dealers have said some customers switched brands because GM does not offer hybrid models. Ford discontinued its Escape compact SUV, one of its most fuel efficient vehicles.
Ford sales were also hurt by lower pickup truck production. A fire at an aluminum supplier cut output earlier this year.
Hyundai and Kia Set to Pass Ford
Hyundai and Kia’s combined sales are projected to surpass Ford’s in the third quarter. Cox says this would be the first time the two South Korean automakers have outsold Ford in any quarter.
Ford pushed back on that comparison. The company said in a statement that even combined, Hyundai and Kia trail Ford in year to date sales, and that the revenue gap is even wider.
Toyota is forecast to post a 1.1% sales gain through three quarters. Honda’s sales are expected to rise 5.6%.
Tesla’s numbers stand out for a different reason. Cox projects Tesla’s year to date sales will drop 18.9% compared to last year.
That would push Tesla’s market share down to 3.0%, from 3.7% previously.
Despite the shifts among individual automakers, Cox raised its overall US vehicle sales forecast for the year. The firm now expects 16.1 million vehicles sold, up from an earlier estimate of 15.8 million.
Cox executive analyst Erin Keating said the broader market has held up steady this year despite the volatility. She noted Asian brands with hybrid lineups are gaining ground quickly.
The third quarter numbers will become official once all automakers report final sales figures for the period ending September 30, 2026.
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