Grayscale Sees Room for ZEC to Gain Market Share

• Bitcoin dominates 93% of the Currencies sector by total market capitalization. 
• Grayscale highlights privacy, quantum security and intents as Zcash advantages.
• Grayscale models ZEC at $1,622 with a 2% BTC share and $8,109 at 10%.

Grayscale Research highlighted Zcash’s privacy and wallet capabilities, while noting that Bitcoin accounts for 93% of the Currencies sector by market capitalization. Head of Research Zach Pandl identified three features Zcash offers that Bitcoin lacks and modeled how a larger share of Bitcoin’s market value could affect ZEC’s price.

Zcash vs Bitcoin Market Share Gap Remains Wide

Bitcoin remains the dominant asset in Grayscale’s Currencies sector. According to the firm’s Crypto Sectors framework, BTC accounts for 93% by market capitalization. Pandl noted that earlier competing currencies, including Litecoin, never developed into major challengers. 

Bitcoin’s network effects also kept many investors focused on BTC rather than spreading their exposure across similar assets.

The valuation gap remains solid. Bitcoin trades near $80K, having a market capitalization of roughly $1.59 trillion. Zcash trades near $788.94, according to CoinMarketCap data, with a market value of about $13.29 billion.

ZEC ranks 11th by market capitalization and remains worth less than 1% of Bitcoin’s total market value. However, ZEC has risen roughly 19-fold over the past year and recently reached its highest price since 2018.

Grayscale Highlights Three Zcash Features

Grayscale’s Zcash vs Bitcoin comparison centers on three technical differences. Pandl identified financial privacy as the first feature. He linked that capability to concerns surrounding increasingly sophisticated AI-powered surveillance. 

The second area involves cybersecurity development, including work addressing possible future quantum-computing threats to classical cryptography.

Grayscale also pointed to “intents” technology available through modern Zcash wallets. Pandl said the technology allows users or AI agents to use Zcash as a private asset hub without depending on widespread merchant acceptance.

Grayscale Models ZEC Prices at Higher BTC Share

Grayscale also estimated ZEC prices under scenarios in which Zcash captures a larger share of Bitcoin’s market. Using a five-year Zcash supply estimate, the firm calculated a ZEC price of $1,622 if Zcash reaches 2% of Bitcoin’s market share.

Under a 10% market-share scenario, Grayscale modeled ZEC at $8,109. Zcash currently has 16.84 million coins in circulation against a maximum supply of 21 million ZEC. Its 24-hour trading volume stands near $1.31 billion, while the token has fallen 0.86% over the past 24 hours.

What Zcash Needs to Capture 10% of Bitcoin’s Market Share 

Zcash offers privacy, intents-based cross-chain utility and ongoing work on quantum-related cybersecurity risks. Bitcoin, however, remains far ahead in liquidity, institutional adoption and network effects, accounting for 93% of Grayscale’s Currencies sector.

For ZEC to capture 10% of Bitcoin’s market share, it would need much deeper liquidity, broader institutional participation and stronger adoption.

Related: Crypto Die-Hards Turn to Zcash, Cite Bitcoin’s Changing Qualities