Hedge funds exit US tech stocks amid Iran conflict, Nvidia odds hold firm

Hedge funds have significantly cut their exposure to US tech stocks, marking the third-largest weekly exit in five years, while the Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 holds at 92.5% YES.

The selloff ran at a 1.9-to-1 ratio of long sales to short covers, concentrated in Software and Semiconductors. The tech pullback coincides with escalating military conflict involving Iran, oil price surges, and geopolitical friction over AI and semiconductors. The market for NVIDIA leading by June 30 sits at 92.5% YES, up from 90% a week ago.

The odds for NVIDIA being the largest by April 30 are at 99.8% YES, near certainty for its short-term position. The hedge fund exit does signal bearish sentiment that could eventually weigh on NVIDIA’s market cap if geopolitical risk continues to strain tech valuations.

This market trades $4,178 in USDC daily, with $42,558 needed to move it 5 points. The largest recent movement was a 1-point spike, showing stability during broader volatility.

At 92.5¢, a YES share for NVIDIA being the largest by June pays $1, a 1.08x return. The hedge fund selloff suggests caution in tech-related bets, particularly if disruptions hit the sector amid ongoing global tensions.

Watch for further hedge fund activity in tech, Iranian conflict developments, and new US-China tech competition news. Any of these could move sentiment on this contract.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.