Iran attacks commercial vessels, tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s military tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, attacking several commercial vessels on April 18, 2026. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 sit at 77% YES, while the likelihood of announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 2027 remains unclear.

Market reaction

The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market holds at 77% YES. The term structure shows a 64-point jump between April 19 and May 31, meaning traders expect something material to happen in that window. The market for Trump’s Military Operations in Iran has no clear signal.

The Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz market sits at 6% YES, reflecting skepticism about immediate allied naval deployments even after Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping.

Why it matters

Combined 24-hour face value for the Hormuz blockade markets hit $165,139, with $33,928 in actual USDC traded. A $3,730 order could swing the May 31 market 5 points, indicating moderate depth. The largest move was a 2-point spike early in the morning, likely from strategic positioning.

What to watch

Iran’s actions on April 18 work against any near-term resolution. Iran is demanding navigation guarantees. At 8% YES, betting on an April 17 blockade lift looks dead. The contrarian play is buying YES at 8.5¢ for April 19, which pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade, an 11.8x return if conditions shift unexpectedly.

Watch for CENTCOM briefings and statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Any sign of diplomatic breakthroughs or further military action will move these markets.

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