Iran ceasefire eases oil supply fears, Strait of Hormuz reopens

The Polymarket contract for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 jumped from 2% to 2% YES in a single day, even as a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased immediate supply fears from the US-Iran conflict.

Market reaction

The crude oil all-time high market is priced at 2% YES. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, showing the contract still reacts sharply to geopolitical news. The WTI Crude Oil price in April 2026 markets are still pricing in the ceasefire’s effects, though current odds for that contract are not available.

Daily face value on the crude oil all-time high market was $100,828, with $2,513 in actual USDC traded. Just $695 could move the market by 5 points, which means a single large trade could shift the price meaningfully. The near-certainty pricing reflects bets on short-term spikes rather than sustained highs.

Why it matters

At 99.9% YES, this contract prices in extreme volatility through the end of April, not a permanent shift in oil markets. The gap between the ceasefire (which should reduce supply risk) and the near-100% odds suggests traders expect at least one more price spike before April 30. Buying YES at 2¢ offers almost no upside unless you see certainty others don’t. A small change in circumstances could collapse this price quickly.

What to watch

Any shifts in US-Iran diplomatic talks or OPEC+ production decisions will determine whether the market’s 99.9% holds through April’s end. A sustained de-escalation without further supply disruptions would be the main catalyst for a repricing.

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