US-Israel strikes on Iran boost regime fall market amid unrest

The ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran has pushed the market for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 to 51% YES, up from 5% just 24 hours prior.

Market reaction

Traders are responding to sustained strikes on Iranian infrastructure and the collapse of peace talks. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market jumped to 50% YES, up from 6% a day ago. Odds for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by December 31 moved in the same direction, suggesting traders expect a prolonged period of instability.

Why it matters

The regime fall market traded $37,360 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes $7,057 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, meaning the book has reasonable depth despite the spike. The Reza Pahlavi June 30 sub-market requires $7,632 to move 5 points, a thinner book that leaves it more exposed to large orders.

At 51¢, buying YES on the regime’s fall offers a 1.96x return. That bet requires a collapse within 37 days, which would depend on something like mass military defections or leadership incapacitation. The Pahlavi market has a similar structure: a YES resolution pays $1 if he enters Iran by mid-year.

What to watch

Iranian domestic unrest and any signs of leadership fractures are the main catalysts. IRGC defections or high-profile endorsements of Pahlavi could move these markets further. Confirmed reports of regime instability from wire services would likely trigger another leg up.

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