Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz for the second time since the war began, and Trump has ordered the destruction of any Iranian boat caught laying mines. The odds of 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 sit at
Market reaction
The April 30 transit market has nosedived from 51% a week ago. With six days left, traders are pricing in the near-impossibility of clearing mines fast enough to restore shipping traffic. The Pentagon estimates clearance could take up to six months, consistent with the market’s 4% reading. The odds for traffic returning to normal by May 31 and June 30 are also likely to face downward pressure given the second round of mine-laying.
Why it matters
The April 30 transit market is thin. Actual USDC traded is $449 per day, and just $542 can move the odds by 5 points. The largest price move was a 0.3-point shift. A single large order could swing the market.
The second mine-laying matters less as an additional obstacle and more for its cumulative effect on shipping confidence. With Trump ordering the destruction of Iranian boats and peace talks taking place in Pakistan, conditions are volatile. Any miscalculation could push normalization further out.
What to watch
Watch for announcements from Admiral Brad Cooper or signs of progress in Pakistan-mediated talks. Successful de-mining operations or a diplomatic breakthrough would be the main catalysts for any upward move.
At current odds, a YES share at 4¢ pays $1 if resolved, a
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