Iran prioritizes Strait of Hormuz reopening over nuclear talks

Iran has proposed prioritizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over nuclear talks. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 1.1% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago.

The delay in nuclear negotiations has moved several markets. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market collapsed from its 7-day high of 50% to 1.1% YES, suggesting traders have abandoned expectations of a quick resolution. The Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement market is at 58.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday, showing skepticism about any imminent easing in the Strait.

The uranium enrichment market traded $4,778 in actual USDC, with $2,529 needed to shift the odds by 5 percentage points — moderate liquidity. The largest single price move was a 2-point spike, showing volatility but no real shift in sentiment. The Hormuz blockade market, by comparison, traded $95,253 in actual USDC, with $8,975 needed for a 5-point move, a much deeper and more liquid book.

Iran’s pivot toward the Strait of Hormuz represents an economic pressure strategy rather than a military one. This reduces the likelihood of a near-term enrichment deal, consistent with the falling odds across related markets. For traders, buying YES at 1¢ is a long-shot bet on a sudden breakthrough, paying 90.9x if Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30.

Watch Iranian state media and White House statements on the Strait of Hormuz. Any shift in Iran’s negotiating position or the US response would move both markets.

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