Iran rejects uranium removal, stalling US-Iran nuclear talks progress

Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee has rejected the removal of uranium from Iran, undermining claims of progress in US-Iran nuclear talks. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 48.5% YES, up from 35% yesterday.

The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement market ticked up despite Iran’s firm stance. The April 30 sub-market’s odds moved from 35% to 48.5% over the past 24 hours. Traders may be hedging against a last-minute deal, but Iran’s rejection makes continued deadlock the more likely outcome. Volume is at $23,824 in actual USDC daily, with only $599 needed to move the price 5 points, which makes the market vulnerable to large trades.

In the US Obtaining Iranian Enriched Uranium market, odds for the US to obtain Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 are flat at 29.5% YES. This market trades $35,523 in actual USDC daily, with a deep order book requiring $33,304 to shift odds 5 points. The lack of movement suggests traders aren’t buying into a breakthrough before the deadline.

Iran’s rejection of uranium removal is a direct setback to the negotiation timeline. The prior surge in odds was driven by optimistic media reports, but the committee’s statement contradicts those expectations. A YES share at 48.5¢ pays $1 if Iran halts enrichment by April 30, a 2.56x return. For this to pay off, Iran would need to reverse course dramatically, which the latest statements directly contradict.

Watch for upcoming statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or US President Trump. Any shift in their rhetoric or a new diplomatic initiative could swing these markets quickly.

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