Is Micron Technology (MU) Stock a Buy After an 18% Drop From Its Record High?

TLDR

• Micron (MU) stock trades near $1,029, down about 1% on the day and 18% below its June 25 record close of $1,255.
• Put volume in the SMH chip ETF well exceeded call volume, and insiders sold $90.9 million of stock over three months.
• Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 379% to $54.23 billion, and EPS of $33.42 beat the $31.77 estimate.
• Analysts hold a “Moderate Buy” consensus with a $1,407.88 price target, and Rosenblatt lifted its target to $1,900.
• The stock sits on a key $1,035 level, with RSI at 50 and MACD turning lower.

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Micron Technology (MU) stock trades near $1,029 on Monday, down about 1% on the day. That leaves it 18% below the record close of $1,255 set on June 25.

Micron Technology, Inc., MU

The day’s range ran from $1,017 to $1,054. Volume was 19.9 million, well under the average of 32.5 million.

Market cap sits near $1.2 trillion. The 52-week range runs from $186 to $1,255.

Why Investors Are Watching Memory Cycles

Memory stocks have a record of sharp drops. Micron fell 73% from 2014 to 2016, 55% in 2018, 43% in 2020, 51% in 2021 and 36% in 2024.

Shortages tend to turn into gluts when makers build too many chips. Some investors fear the current dip is only the start of a deeper pullback.

Near-term pressure has come from the options market. Put volume in the SMH ETF far exceeded call volume, which points to hedging or bearish bets across chip stocks.

Weaker-than-expected OpenAI revenue data and slower profit growth at Samsung also hit AI and memory names. A Taiwan union has authorized strike action over a bonus dispute as well.

Insiders have been sellers. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold about $38.8 million of stock on August 21 at an average price of $968.90, cutting his holdings by 13%.

Insiders sold $90.9 million in total over the past three months. They own 0.24% of the company.

The Bull Case Leans on AI Demand

Micron’s September 30 report beat estimates. Revenue rose 379% to $54.23 billion, against a forecast of $51.33 billion.

EPS came in at $33.42, above the $31.77 consensus. Net margin was 63.8%.

Guidance for fiscal first quarter 2027 calls for EPS of $37.15 to $39.15. More than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are reportedly committed.

HBM chips need three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM. That has tightened DRAM supply for PC, phone and server chips and pushed prices up.

Analysts expect revenue and EPS to grow at 55% and 67% annual rates from fiscal 2026 to 2028. At the current price, the stock trades at about six times expected earnings for this year.

Wall Street has one Strong Buy, 41 Buy and four Hold ratings. Zacks also upgraded the stock to Strong Buy.

The 50-day moving average is $980.05 and the 200-day is $841.86. The stock trades above both.

Chart Analysis

The daily chart shows MU stuck in a range since its June peak. Price rebounded from near $740 in late July and climbed along a rising trendline, reaching about $1,100 in late September. It has since slipped back to the $1,035 key level, which now acts as resistance after price closed below it. The trendline sits just under the current price, near $1,016, and the next major support is $900.

RSI reads 50.20, a neutral level after falling from the 60s in early October. MACD is at 22.36 against a signal line of 28.68, with the histogram at -6.32. That is a bearish crossover and points to fading momentum.

What to watch: A close below the trendline and $1,016 could open the door to $900. A reclaim of $1,035 would keep the uptrend structure intact and put $1,100 back in view.