Italy to deploy minesweepers to Strait of Hormuz in international effort

Italy plans to send two minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz as part of an international effort to clear the waterway. The odds of 80 ships transiting the Strait by April 30 are at 5% YES, up from 4% yesterday.

The Italian deployment nudged the April 30 market slightly higher. Odds remain low, but the move signals growing international commitment to reopening the Strait, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit. The term structure is flat at a consistent 5% YES across all sub-markets, pointing to a cautious outlook with no differentiation between near and far deadlines.

Liquidity is thin: $449 in USDC trades daily, and it takes just $542 to move the price by 5 percentage points. That means a single large order could cause a sharp swing. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 1.3-point uptick, more incremental than decisive.

The minesweeper deployment doesn’t change the fundamental picture much but points to a slow shift toward potential resolution. At 5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the transit threshold is met by April 30, a 20x return. Traders would need to believe in a significant operational acceleration within the next six days for this bet to make sense.

Watch for statements from Admiral Brad Cooper at U.S. Central Command and maritime intelligence reports from firms like Windward on ship movement data. These will shape trader sentiment as the April 30 resolution date approaches.

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