Lebanon and Israel extend ceasefire for three weeks after White House talks

Lebanon and Israel have extended their ceasefire for another three weeks following discussions at the White House. The market for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100% YES.

The extension follows talks involving Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. Polymarket odds for Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 are at 100% YES. Odds for an Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 also sit at 100% YES.

The White House talks have locked in expectations of a temporary calm through at least the end of April. Odds for the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 are unchanged at 100% YES, with traders pricing in continued peace talks through the summer.

All three markets show zero daily volume, meaning the firm odds reflect trader conviction but no active price discovery. With no trading depth at $0/day, even small trades could move these markets. Caution is warranted if entering positions.

The ceasefire extension, brokered with U.S. mediation, ties the Trump administration directly to these negotiations. Trump’s public endorsement was already priced in. At current odds, buying YES at 100¢ provides no return unless the situation reverses.

Watch for statements from the IDF or Hezbollah. A change in military posture or rhetoric would directly move these markets.

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