MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Jumps 9% as JPMorgan Backs Las Vegas Comeback

TLDR

• JPMorgan upgraded MGM from “Neutral” to “Overweight” with a new $46 price target
• The upgrade implies roughly 20% upside from MGM’s prior close of $38.45
• Las Vegas Strip room rates are tracking up 1% year-over-year in Q2 2026
• Strip visitor volumes rose in February and March for the first time in 13 months
• MGM stock hit a new 52-week high of $41.63 on Wednesday following the upgrade

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MGM Resorts stock jumped as much as 9% on Wednesday, hitting a new 52-week high of $41.63, after JPMorgan upgraded the stock and raised its price target.

MGM Resorts International, MGM

JPMorgan moved MGM from “Neutral” to “Overweight” and lifted its December 2026 price target to $46 from $41. That implies around 20% upside from the stock’s prior close of $38.45.

Analyst Daniel Politzer led the call, arguing that MGM’s Las Vegas Strip earnings estimates “appear to have bottomed” after a rough second half of 2025.

JPMorgan noted MGM currently trades at a 14% implied free cash flow yield, which the bank views as cheap relative to peers.

Las Vegas Demand Picking Up

The upgrade was backed by improving data on the ground in Las Vegas. Strip visitor volumes rose in both February and March, the first back-to-back monthly gains in 13 months.

Strip RevPAR has now grown for three consecutive months. JPMorgan’s own room-rate survey showed MGM’s Q2 2026 rates tracking up 1% year-over-year, a turnaround from the 2% decline expected earlier this year.

Luxury properties like Bellagio, Aria, Cosmopolitan, and Mandalay Bay showed the strongest momentum. Lower-tier properties also appeared to stabilize.

JPMorgan’s analysis of Chase spending data showed U.S. discretionary travel spending rose 4.1% year-over-year in May. Growth was seen across all income groups, with upper-income consumers leading but middle- and lower-income cohorts holding up too.

Hard Rock Concerns Addressed

Investors have been watching the planned Hard Rock Las Vegas resort, set to open in late 2027. JPMorgan pushed back on fears that it would hurt existing operators.

The bank pointed to historical precedent, saying major new Strip resorts tend to grow overall demand rather than simply shift market share away from existing players.

JPMorgan also put a number on the downside risk: a 1% revenue hit to MGM’s Strip business would reduce its valuation by only about $1.80 per share, or roughly 5% of the current stock price.

MGM’s most recent earnings, reported April 29, showed Q1 EPS of $0.49, missing the $0.56 consensus estimate. Revenue of $4.45 billion came in above expectations of $4.37 billion, up 4.2% year-over-year.

MGM isn’t alone in getting attention from analysts lately. Mizuho kept an “outperform” rating on the stock but cut its target to $59 from $62. Deutsche Bank reiterated a “buy” rating on May 1. The consensus rating across 22 analysts sits at “Hold” with an average target of $48.18.

IAC Inc. purchased 550,000 MGM shares in March at an average price of $37.30, bringing its total holding to over 66 million shares.

MGM last traded at $41.52, up around 8.8% on the day.