Palantir (PLTR) Stock: Can Q2 Earnings Finally Break the Stalemate?

TLDR

• PLTR rose ~1% Friday after the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency withdrew a solicitation following Palantir’s bid protest
• PLTR is down ~30% in 2026 but up ~5% over the last 30 days, holding steadier than many AI peers
• Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow hit $925M, up 150% year over year; adjusted EPS also up ~150%
• CEO Alex Karp forecasts $15B–$18B in free cash flow within two years; full-year 2026 FCF guidance raised to $4.2B–$4.4B
• Q2 2026 earnings are due August 3; stock trades near $122, well below its 200-day moving average of ~$154

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) got a small boost on Friday, rising around 1% after the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency pulled a procurement solicitation that Palantir had challenged.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

The agency said it withdrew the request at its own initiative. The contract involved an AI-enabled intelligence platform used to support military operations, including targeting functions.

Palantir filed a bid protest in May, arguing the government was trying to build a new system when commercial technology already existed. The withdrawal means the agency will likely need to rethink how it approaches the acquisition.

It’s a procedural win for Palantir, though it also delays the rollout of the platform itself.

The stock is trading at around $122.92, down roughly 30% in 2026. It peaked above $200 in November 2025 and has been sliding since. Despite that, PLTR has gained about 5% over the past 30 days, holding up better than many AI names that have swung sharply in both directions.

The Bull vs. Bear Debate

The split on Palantir comes down to one question: which growth rate do you trust?

Bears typically use a 20%–30% annual growth assumption in discounted cash flow models. At that rate, PLTR’s current valuation — over 100x forward earnings and a trailing price-to-sales ratio near 65x — looks hard to justify.

But Q1 2026 results didn’t cooperate with that model. Adjusted free cash flow came in at $925 million, up 150% year over year. Adjusted EPS hit 33 cents, also up roughly 150%. Those are five to seven times the growth rates conservative models assume.

Then there’s CEO Alex Karp’s forecast. He told CNBC that Palantir expects to generate $15B–$18B in free cash flow within two years. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $7.65B–$7.66B, implying 71% growth. U.S. commercial revenue guidance calls for at least 120% growth.

Karp has a track record worth noting. In 2022, he projected $4.5B in 2025 revenue. Actual 2025 revenue came in at $4.475B — essentially on the money.

Earnings on August 3

Palantir’s government-heavy client base has helped insulate it from some of the broader AI sector volatility tied to inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty.

Still, recent earnings reports have produced strong results without moving the stock. That pattern has frustrated bulls who point to the numbers.

Full-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance was raised to $4.2B–$4.4B, already ahead of what a 20%–30% growth model would project.

Key Technical Level

Technically, PLTR is in a downtrend. The stock sits in the low $120s, well below the 200-day moving average near $154. A drop on July 22 showed that selling pressure remains.

Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 3. Free cash flow will be the number to watch.