Polymarket odds: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 at 1.15% on $19.1M

Polymarket Reprices “Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31” After U.S.-Iran Attack Headlines Keep Shipping Stalled

On Polymarket, traders now price the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” contract at 1.15% Yes (98.85% No) on $19.06M matched volume. The repricing follows fresh reporting on continued U.S.-Iran attacks and stalled shipping, and the market’s own sharp 24h/7d probability swing.

Key Takeaways

• Prediction: Polymarket’s leading outcome is No at 98.85% (Yes 1.15%) for traffic returning to normal by July 31.
• Basis: Continued conflict-linked shipping disruption headlines aligned with traders pushing the contract sharply toward No on heavy volume.
• Timing: The market resolves on 2026-07-31; the probability has moved 37.5 percentage points over both the past 24h and 7d.

A report describes a 10th straight day of attacks between the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East, with diplomacy efforts faltering and the fight framed as a battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz. The story says shipping through the strait has been largely stalled, includes an account of a tanker attacked in the strait, and notes energy prices rising amid the escalation.

Odds Breakdown: Yes 1.15% vs No 98.85% on $19.06M Matched Volume, with a 37.5pp Move in 24h/7d

This is a binary Polymarket contract: buying Yes only pays if the market resolves that Hormuz traffic “returns to normal” by the July 31 resolution date, while No pays otherwise—so the current 1.15% Yes price implies traders see normalization by the deadline as very unlikely. The move is not subtle: the contract’s summary shows a 37.5pp shift over both 24 hours and seven days, tagged as bearish with strong momentum, high volatility, and a weakening consensus—signs that even as the market marched lower, there was still meaningful disagreement along the way. The historical tape also shows a sequence of step-down reprices (including -6.0pp and -5.5pp moves), consistent with headline-driven updates rather than a smooth glide path. With $19.06M matched, the market is absorbing information quickly, and at these odds it is effectively trading “normal by July 31” as a tail outcome rather than a base case.

Because the settlement hinges on conditions “by July 31,” watch for any credible shift toward resumed shipping and throughput in the strait before month-end; absent that, the market’s pricing suggests little room left for a Yes rebound from 1.15%.

What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Spillover Contracts on Oil Prices, Shipping Disruption, and Broader Middle East R

If you’re tracking spillovers beyond this headline market, Polymarket traders are also clustering into adjacent contracts that map the next catalysts for energy and shipping risk. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” sits at 72.5% No on $45.94M volume, while “Iran leader end of 2026?” prices Mojtaba Khamenei at 73.55% on $33.26M—both high-liquidity gauges that can reprice quickly on fresh signals. On the nearer-term tape, “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” is 54.5% on $1.84M, and “Iran full airspace closure by…?” is 43.5% on $5.17M, offering shorter-dated readthroughs traders use to triangulate how disruption risks could evolve next.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
• Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 1.1%
• Volume: ~$19,058,815
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 1.1% / No 98.8%; No: Yes 1.1% / No 98.8%

Related News