SanDisk (SNDK) Stock Drops 9% as Guidance Disappoints Despite Record Q4 Results

TLDR

• SanDisk stock dropped over 9% in premarket trading despite beating Q4 earnings and revenue estimates
• Q4 revenue hit $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year, with EPS of $39.25 vs $34.96 expected
• Q1 revenue guidance of $10.3B to $10.8B came in below analyst estimates of $10.82B
• Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% also disappointed vs the 84.6% posted in Q4
• The stock has surged over 390% year to date, leaving investors with high expectations

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SanDisk posted what looked like a blowout quarter. The numbers were hard to argue with. But Wall Street was focused on what comes next, and that’s where things got messy.

SANDISK $SNDK Q4 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $8.97B (Est. $8.6B) 🟢; +372% YoY, +51% QoQ
🔹 Adj. EPS: $39.25 (Est. $34.45) 🟢; +68% QoQ
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 84.6% (Est. 81.5%) 🟢; + 58.2 ppt YoY

Q1’27 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $10.3B-$10.8B (Est. $11.1B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS:… pic.twitter.com/82JlTgzpaJ

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 5, 2026

The stock was trading around $1,223 in premarket Thursday, down roughly 9.4%, before settling to a 5.4% decline as the session opened.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

Q4 adjusted EPS came in at $39.25, well ahead of the $34.96 analysts expected. Revenue of $8.97 billion also beat the $8.48 billion estimate. A year earlier, SanDisk was earning 29 cents a share on $1.9 billion in revenue. The turnaround has been nothing short of dramatic.

Guidance Misses the Mark

For Q1, SanDisk guided revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. Analysts were looking for $10.82 billion. The midpoint of that range came in below consensus.

Gross margin guidance also disappointed. The company forecast 83% to 85% for the current quarter, slightly below the 84.6% posted in Q4.

Adjusted EPS guidance of $44.00 to $46.00 was roughly in line with the $44.21 consensus, offering little upside surprise.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge summed it up plainly: “Numbers on an absolute basis are spectacular, but the shortfall on guidance is negative.”

Data center revenue for Q4 hit $2.98 billion, more than doubling sequentially and beating estimates of $2.74 billion. Edge revenue rose 48% to $5.43 billion. Consumer revenue dropped 32% sequentially to $556 million.

For the full fiscal year 2026, revenue climbed 175% year over year to $20.25 billion. Data center revenue for the full year rose 437%, driven by demand for AI infrastructure.

Capital Returns and New Agreements

SanDisk’s board approved an additional $14 billion share repurchase authorization, bringing total remaining buyback capacity to $15.5 billion.

The company also said it signed five additional New Business Model agreements since its April earnings call, bringing the total to ten since that update.

CEO David Goeckeler acknowledged the challenges of the current demand cycle. “We want to get this kind of boom and bust out of it,” he said on the earnings call. “We want to get more consistent and deeper relationships with our customers so we can plan better and they can plan better.”

The stock has gained over 469% in 2026 and more than 3,100% over the past 12 months. That kind of rally builds in a lot of expectation.

With a stock priced for perfection, in-line guidance simply wasn’t enough. SanDisk’s remaining buyback capacity stands at $15.5 billion as of the latest update.