Standard Chartered digital-assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick says the latest crypto selloff likely marked the cycle bottom, keeping his year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum in place.
The call follows Bitcoin’s drop toward $59,000, a level Kendrick described as the likely low for the current cycle. BTC has since rebounded to around $63,500, while Ethereum traded near $1,665 at the time of writing, leaving both assets far below the bank’s year-end targets but off the deepest part of the recent drawdown.
Kendrick’s latest note frames the move as the end of the current crypto winter rather than the start of another breakdown. His view is that forced selling, weak ETF flows and broader liquidity stress have already done the heaviest damage, with the market now waiting for confirmation through renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and stronger institutional buying.
The forecast extends Standard Chartered’s earlier bullish view even after one of Bitcoin’s most painful stretches of the year. A previous Reuters report on Kendrick’s $100,000 Bitcoin target noted that Bitcoin had fallen sharply as ETF redemptions and Strategy-linked liquidity concerns pressured sentiment.
ETF Flows And SpaceX Liquidity Stay In Focus
Spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions remain one of the clearest tests for the bottom call. U.S. funds saw heavy outflows during the selloff, weakening the institutional bid that helped support Bitcoin through earlier phases of the cycle. A return to consistent inflows would give Kendrick’s thesis stronger market confirmation.
The liquidity backdrop also includes the SpaceX IPO window. Kendrick pointed to cash demand around the record listing as one factor that may have pulled capital away from Bitcoin and other risk assets. Crypto markets have already been watching the public debut closely, with SPCX trading on Nasdaq after SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO and synthetic SpaceX-linked markets drawing large crypto-native volume.
That pressure does not change Bitcoin’s long-term structure on its own, but it helps explain why the selloff arrived during a crowded liquidity moment. ETF redemptions, macro uncertainty, SpaceX-related cash positioning and weak sentiment all hit the market at the same time.
Strategy remains another demand variable. Bitcoin investors have been watching whether Michael Saylor’s company continues to absorb supply or becomes more conservative as its financing model comes under pressure. The debate around whether Strategy can sell Bitcoin if needed has made corporate-treasury demand a larger part of the market’s short-term risk analysis.
Ethereum May Lead The Next Rebound
Kendrick also expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in the near term. That view fits Standard Chartered’s existing Ethereum thesis, which keeps ETH at $4,000 by the end of 2026 and much higher over the longer term if stablecoins, tokenized assets and onchain settlement continue to expand.
Ethereum’s weakness has been severe, but the bank’s prior Ethereum target update argued that network activity, stablecoin settlement and tokenization demand remain stronger than ETH’s price performance suggests. A rebound in the ETH/BTC ratio would be the clearest signal that investors are beginning to reprice Ethereum’s role rather than simply following Bitcoin higher.
Kendrick’s call now places the market’s next confirmation points in clear view: Bitcoin holding the $59,000 low, spot ETF flows turning positive again, Strategy demand stabilizing, macro stress easing and Ethereum starting to recover relative strength. Without those signals, the forecast remains a bullish institutional view. With them, the $100,000 BTC and $4,000 ETH targets move back into the center of the year-end market debate.
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