Sui [SUI] traded near $0.68 on July 29 as sellers pushed the token back towards a key support zone ahead of its scheduled August token unlock.
However, the upcoming release appears smaller than some reports have suggested. Official tokenomics indicate the circulating supply will increase by around 22.2 million SUI during August—worth roughly $15.1 million at current prices—rather than a fresh $15 million unlock every day.
August’s supply increase may be smaller than expected
According to Sui’s official token release schedule, circulating supply is projected to rise from approximately 4.052 billion SUI in July to 4.075 billion by the end of August.
That represents an increase of roughly 22.2 million SUI, equivalent to about 0.55% of the existing circulating supply.
Token Unlocks also identifies a 13.72 million SUI cliff unlock on August 1. Rather than representing additional supply, that event forms part of the broader monthly increase outlined in Sui’s official schedule.
The distinction matters because some market commentary has overstated the size of the August release.
While additional supply can weigh on prices, the relatively modest increase suggests broader market sentiment and investor demand may have a greater influence on SUI’s short-term direction.
Bears remain in control below key resistance
From a technical perspective, sellers continue to hold the upper hand.
SUI traded around $0.6793 on the 12-hour chart after falling from approximately $0.77, leaving the token below both its 50-period EMA [$0.7289] and 100-period EMA [$0.7569].
The latest decline was accompanied by stronger trading volume than the subsequent recovery attempts, suggesting buyers have yet to regain conviction.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index [RSI] fell to 33.49, placing SUI close to oversold territory. Although that may indicate selling momentum is becoming stretched, it does not, by itself, confirm that a bottom has formed.
Can SUI defend $0.67?
The immediate support sits around $0.676, making it the key level to watch over the coming sessions.
If buyers defend that area, SUI could attempt a recovery towards $0.70 and $0.71, with a more meaningful trend reversal requiring a move back above the 50-period EMA near $0.729.
A decisive break below $0.676, however, would expose the $0.66 support area before bringing $0.64 into focus.
Although the August token release could add to near-term selling pressure, the current downtrend began well before the scheduled unlock. That suggests broader market weakness, rather than the supply increase alone, has been driving recent price action.
Final Summary
- Sui’s circulating supply is expected to increase by approximately 22.2 million tokens during August, a relatively modest rise of around 0.55%.
- Holding $0.676 could stabilize the short-term outlook, while a break below that level would increase the risk of further losses towards $0.66 and $0.64.
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