On Thursday, Polymarket handed its critics the sharpest argument yet. A governance vote coordinated through UMA has settled a heavily traded market as “No”, meaning MicroStrategy did not sell Bitcoin by May 31, even though […]
Key Takeaways Polymarket’s June bitcoin market, with $6.22M in volume, prices a 62% chance BTC drops to $60,000 or below. Kalshi’s $60K-vs-$100K contract gives bitcoin an 83% probability of hitting $60K first before year-end 2026. […]
Prediction markets used to be a scrappy corner of crypto. Now they’re a boardroom fight. If you’re deciding where to trade — or which rails will win institutional adoption — the real contest isn’t just […]
Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC in May sparked one of the most contentious debates around Polymarket’s resolution criteria. Polymarket has officially finalized one of this year’s most controversial events. It’s a prediction market on […]
TLDR Polymarket resolved the May contract as No and the June contract as Yes after Strategy disclosed its bitcoin sale on June 1. Strategy confirmed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 Bitcoin between […]
TLDR Prediction markets now assign a strong probability that Bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year. Kalshi traders price a 50 percent chance of Bitcoin dropping under $50,000. Polymarket contracts show only a 30 percent chance […]
Prediction markets are supposed to be trustless. The rules are written, the money goes in, and the outcome speaks for itself. But a disputed resolution on Polymarket is now testing that premise in a very […]
Key Takeaways A Polymarket trader lost roughly $527,000 in one day on a wager tied to Strategy’s bitcoin holdings. Strategy sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million on June 1, its first bitcoin sale since […]
TLDR Strategy disclosed a 32 BTC sale covering May 26 to May 31. Polymarket resolved the Strategy Bitcoin sale market to No. YES traders say the market asked whether the sale happened before May 31. […]
A Polymarket trader argues that the rules for MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin sale event were intentionally changed after the fact. A Polymarket trader has accused the prediction market platform of unfairly resolving a disputed market tied […]
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