TLDR
- Tesla is up 10.8% for the week heading into Thursday’s Q2 delivery report
- Wall Street estimates range from 400,000 to 466,000 vehicles delivered in Q2
- Tesla sold 384,000 cars in Q2 2025, so any result would mark year-over-year growth
- The loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit has weighed on growth, partly offset by rising gas prices
- Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating; the consensus analyst view is currently Hold with a $403.07 average price target
Tesla is trading at $427.74 on Wednesday, up 1.7% on the day and up 10.8% for the week, as investors position ahead of Thursday’s Q2 delivery report.
The delivery number is the main event. Wall Street estimates are unusually spread out — FactSet puts the consensus at around 409,000 vehicles, Bloomberg’s average sits closer to 400,000, and Tesla’s own compiled consensus lands at about 406,000. On the bullish end, forecaster Troy Teslike projects 466,000 deliveries. Future Fund’s Gary Black estimates 420,000.
Tesla sold 384,000 cars in Q2 2025, so all current estimates point to year-over-year growth.
If confirmed, it would be Tesla’s second straight quarter of year-over-year gains. The company hasn’t posted back-to-back quarterly delivery growth since 2024. Annual deliveries peaked at around 1.8 million in 2023, then declined in both 2024 and 2025.
What Hurt — and What Helped
The removal of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit in September made EVs less affordable for U.S. buyers and added pressure on demand. Tesla also chose not to launch a lower-priced mass-market EV, focusing instead on the Cybercab robo-taxi platform.
On the other side of the ledger, gasoline prices climbed to around $4.60 a gallon in May — up roughly $1.60 — after conflict in Iran disrupted global oil supplies. Higher gas prices tend to push buyers toward electric vehicles.
The stock’s 10.8% weekly gain suggests the market is already pricing in a solid result. Analysts say Tesla would likely need to come in around 420,000 or higher to maintain that momentum. A number closer to 466,000 would likely push the stock further.
Coming into 2026, Tesla is down about 6% year-to-date, despite the recent run.
Analyst Ratings and Earnings Context
Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating on Tesla on Tuesday. The broader analyst picture is more cautious — 21 analysts rate it Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and four have a Sell. The average price target sits at $403.07, below where the stock is currently trading.
In its most recent quarterly earnings, Tesla posted EPS of $0.41, beating the $0.39 consensus. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, slightly below the $22.96 billion estimate but up 15.8% year-over-year.
Wedbush has the most aggressive price target on the Street at $600.
Insiders have been selling. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold around 2,600 units of stock in early June at $402.20 each. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson reduced her position by 35% in late April. In total, insiders have sold around $12.4 million worth of stock over the past 90 days.
Institutional ownership stands at 66.2%, with several funds adding to positions in recent quarters.
The Q2 delivery report drops Thursday morning.
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