US-Israeli strikes damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, uranium stockpile intact

US-Israeli strikes have compromised Iran’s nuclear facilities, but Iran retains around 440kg of highly enriched uranium. The market for the US obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 remains ambiguous with no clear odds shift yet.

The Iran enriched uranium surrender by April 30 sits at 5% YES, down from 65% just a week ago. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of an imminent surrender. The market for surrender by June 30 has better odds at 28.5% YES, suggesting traders see a possible catalyst in the near term. The December 31 market is relatively stable at 43% YES, consistent with a longer-term outlook.

For the US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, odds are at 10.5% YES. That’s a sharp decline from 68% a week ago, meaning recent escalations have crushed expectations for a deal. Daily USDC volume in this market is $7,699, with only $1,550 needed to move the odds 5 points, making it susceptible to large single orders.

The trading data across these markets shows a split between short-term pessimism and mid-to-long-term uncertainty. The April 30 uranium surrender market has daily USDC volume of $10,723, and $9,561 is enough to move the odds by 5 points, meaning moderate trades can cause real swings. The June 30 market has a thicker order book, requiring $16,180 for a similar move, which points to stronger trader conviction there.

The real question is whether the strikes and Trump’s rhetoric will push Iran to negotiate. At 5¢, a YES share on April 30 surrender pays $1 if Iran relents, a 20x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe in a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for IAEA reports and any confirmed changes in Iran’s stockpile status. Trump’s communications and any Israeli military actions in the coming days will be key indicators of where these markets move next.

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