US seizes Iranian ships as ceasefire expires, Trump threatens strikes

The US-Iran ceasefire expires tomorrow as the US seizes Iranian ships and Trump threatens strikes if no deal is reached. The odds of Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by April 30 are at 35.5% YES.

## Market reaction

The market for Trump announcing the end of military operations has fallen from 36% a week ago to 30.5%. Trump’s stated readiness to strike Iranian infrastructure, combined with Iran’s refusal to negotiate, has traders repricing the likelihood of a ceasefire announcement by April 30. The market for Trump announcing a ceasefire end by April 21 sits at 7.5% YES, meaning traders expect almost no chance of a new ceasefire before the current one lapses.

The ceasefire breach announcement market is at 100% YES, with traders treating an official declaration of the ceasefire’s breach by April 21 as a foregone conclusion. No actual USDC was traded in this market, meaning the odds moved to 100% without resistance. That lack of opposition suggests traders are focused on what comes after the breach, not whether it happens.

## Why it matters

The ceasefire by April 30 market has a daily face value of $163,195, but only $54,670 in actual USDC trades. Just $841 can shift the odds by 5 percentage points, making this market highly reactive to any single large trade or sudden news development.

## What to watch

At 30.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire is announced by April 30, a potential 3.28x return. That bet requires believing in a last-minute diplomatic turnaround or significant de-escalation, neither of which matches the current rhetoric.

Watch for Trump’s statements after the ceasefire expires, any unexpected diplomatic activity from Pakistan, or changes in the US Navy’s regional presence.

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