Bitcoin’s odds of recapturing the all-important $100K milestone are currently low, despite the ongoing price recovery setup. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading around $84k, down about 2% in the last 24 hours.
Prediction markets now assign a 40% probability that Bitcoin will reach the milestone. Many expect a return to that level to mark the shift from a long-term bear market to a long-term bull market.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows tweeted regarding the development:
Ted said the odds of BTC reaching $100k in 2026 are even lower. He believes that, based on two key metrics, spot demand and rising leverage, BTC is unlikely to make a decisive move until the end of the year, even though the last quarter is typically the most bullish.
He predicted that the current setup will be followed by a price correction and sideways trading around a previous support level. Eventually, bulls will muster enough momentum to make the decisive move.
 
For his part, Ted isn’t entirely bearish on the cryptocurrency right now but believes the digital currency will likely absorb some downward pressure before going on the offensive again. His view contrasts with some analysts who expect a strong end to 2026, which will prime the market for a major early 2027 bull market. They argue that the last three months have been primarily bullish over the years and that is where the market is heading.
The Future
The $100k debate is heating up because of the ongoing “Uptober” price action, which has historically favored upside. However, the first week of the month has been incredibly slow and somewhat bearish, with nothing to indicate major bullish activity. The furor is dying down, and if the cryptocurrency doesn’t post any bullish price action within a week or so, the market will come under massive pressure.
The Uptober narrative is also losing ground because, in the instances where the 10th month has been bullish, September has been largely bearish. This time, September was bullish, and now October is going in the other direction. In any case, the next three weeks will be eventful and are expected to draw traders’ attention.
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