Hormuz shipping resumes after ceasefire as Polymarket 2028 GOP odds stay flat

RFK Jr Holds 49% Lead in Polymarket’s GOP Nominee 2028 Market as Traders Ignore Hormuz-Driven Oil Moves

Oil prices retreated as shipping activity picked up through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, even as Iran signaled tighter controls on vessel transits. On Polymarket’s Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market, pricing was unchanged, with the leading contract holding steady at 49%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the 49% favorite to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
• Traders held odds flat even as oil markets reacted to signs of resumed Hormuz flows and new Iranian permitting conditions.
• The market is slated to resolve on Nov. 7, 2028; the 24-hour and 7-day implied-odds changes are both 0.0 points.

Brent crude rose modestly on Friday but remained on track for a weekly drop of about 8% after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon and oil supplies began moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was up $0.66 at $80.38 a barrel by 1:30 p.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $0.94 at $77.54, with trading volumes described as light due to a U.S. federal holiday. MarineTraffic data showed at least four tankers carrying crude, oil products and liquefied petroleum gas entered the strait on Friday heading toward Iraqi Gulf ports, as Gulf producers prepared to raise exports after the ceasefire began at 4 p.m. local time (1300 GMT). Iran signaled tighter control over shipping, with state TV reporting that vessels must coordinate transit with the Revolutionary Guards navy, and an advisory seen by the maritime industry saying no vessel can pass without a valid passage permit. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said a planned meeting with U.S. officials in Switzerland was postponed because a memorandum of understanding to end the war had already been signed digitally, while analysts cited expectations that more than 85 million barrels of oil could be released into global markets and sanctions on Iranian oil could be lifted.

Trading Data: $662.21M Volume Keeps GOP Nominee 2028 Odds Flat—RFK Jr 49.0%, Vance 38.95%, Rubio 23.85%

Polymarket’s Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 contract showed a stable front-runner with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49.0% Yes (51.0% No) on $662.21 million in volume. J.D. Vance was next at 38.95% Yes (61.05% No), followed by Marco Rubio at 23.85% Yes (76.15% No). Longer-shot pricing remained steep, with Tucker Carlson at 6.55% Yes (93.45% No) and Donald Trump at 2.05% Yes (97.95% No), reflecting a heavy preference for the top two names and limited implied probability assigned to the rest of the field.

Any sustained repricing would likely show up first in the gap between the top two contracts (Kennedy vs. Vance) and whether volume continues to concentrate at the front of the board ahead of the Nov. 7, 2028 resolution date.

Beyond the 2028 GOP Nominee: Oil, Strait of Hormuz Shipping Flows, and Iran Permit Rules as Other Top Polymarket-Watched

Away from the 2028 GOP-nomination tape, traders have also been clustering into a handful of geopolitics and macro-linked contracts. “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?” showed “Oil Sanction Relief” at 100.0% on $8,636,178 in volume, while the broader “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market priced “JD Vance” at 19.55% on $633,506,698. In Europe-focused risk, “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” put “Starmer – UK PM” at 66.5% on $1,084,513, and “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” priced “Nicolás Maduro” at 73.95% on $91,320,439.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$662,210,013

Top strike rungs

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