Hormuz tanker traffic resumes as Polymarket Yes odds rise to 2.7%

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Resumes After US Lifts Iran Blockade, Polymarket “Yes” Odds Tick Up

Oil tankers have resumed sailing through the Strait of Hormuz after the United States lifted its blockade on Iran under an interim deal ending the three-month war, helping push oil prices lower. On Polymarket, odds for “Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?” rose to 2.7% from 1.3%, though “No” remains heavily favored.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 97.3% chance that Iran will not agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30.
• The “Yes” odds ticked up after reports that tanker traffic resumed through Hormuz as an interim deal took effect.
• The contract is set to resolve on 2026-06-30.

Stocks in Japan and South Korea climbed to record highs as oil prices fell after shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed the United States lifting its blockade on Iran on Thursday, as an interim deal to end the three-month war took effect. Brent crude futures fell 1% to $79.03 a barrel and were down 9.5% for the week. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.8% to a fresh record high for a fifth straight session, taking its weekly gain to 8.5%, while South Korea’s market jumped 3.1% and was up 15.3% on the week. Analysts warned that Iran was unlikely to relinquish control over the strait, and cited a view that toll-free transit was only guaranteed for 60 days.

Polymarket Pricing: “Unrestricted Hormuz Shipping by June 30” at 2.7% Yes (97.3% No) on $984K Volume

The Polymarket contract “Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?” was trading at 2.7% for Yes and 97.3% for No, with roughly $984,120 in volume. Yes has climbed 1.4 percentage points from 1.3%, but pricing still implies traders see a low probability of an explicit agreement on unrestricted shipping by the June 30 resolution date. The market remains decisively skewed to No, indicating limited conviction behind the recent uptick in Yes.

Traders will be watching whether the market continues to price “unrestricted” access as unlikely into the June 30 resolution window, or whether Yes odds build further alongside any sustained improvement in perceived shipping conditions.

Macro Markets in Focus: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Energy Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching

Beyond the shipping-focused wager, Polymarket activity has concentrated on parallel Iran and Gulf-risk contracts that traders see as longer-running tests of any diplomatic thaw. In “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?”, the market implies a 91.5% chance of No on $28,388,171 in volume, while “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” is nearer a coin flip with No at 53.0% on $6,815,277. Nuclear-linked bets also remain heavily skewed, with “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” pricing No at 94.5% on $10,422,589, and “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” at 72.5% No on $979,985.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

Related Markets

Sources

View market on platform