Solana traded around $114.88 on October 8, down 2.5% over 24 hours after moving between $114.42 and $117.90. That puts SOL close to the lower boundary of a closely watched $110–$116 daily breakout-floor zone.
The move comes after recent Solana ETF flows reversed to a $1.13 million net weekly outflow. Bitwise BSOL recorded $6.51 million in outflows and Canary SOLC $4.78 million, partly offset by $5.38 million entering Grayscale GSOL, according to CryptoNews.net.
For this Solana price prediction, the immediate issue is not whether the title’s $104 level is guaranteed. It is whether sellers can force a confirmed loss of the $110–$116 structure, which recent analysis says would expose a deeper $99–$104 demand area.
SOL daily indicators show fading momentum above longer-term trend support
Daily indicators present a mixed market rather than a uniformly bearish one. The daily RSI(14) reading of 48.816 is neutral to mildly bearish, sitting below the midpoint but not in oversold territory. This leaves room for further weakness without indicating that a reversal is already technically compelled.
The daily MACD(12,26) is at -0.064 and carries a bearish signal, pointing to weaker short-term momentum. Separately, recent technical commentary noted that the MACD histogram had turned negative after SOL failed to make fresh highs. Taken together, those readings fit a market that has lost upside traction while it tests support rather than one that has conclusively broken its broader trend.
Price is also below its 20-day EMA at $116.32, a near-term negative because the average now sits above spot and overlaps the lower part of the nearby resistance sequence. A recovery through that average would improve the short-term picture, but the indicator alone does not establish that buyers are back in control.
There are still longer-horizon supports beneath the market. SOL remains above the 50-day EMA at $107.11 and the 200-day SMA at $86.45. The distance between spot and the 200-day average is material: the supplied daily data therefore supports the view that short-term momentum has deteriorated while the longer-term trend has not yet been negated.
The latest reported weekly ETF result was negative, adding a near-term headwind to the technical setup, though the product-level picture was uneven rather than universally weak. A renewed improvement in flows could ease that pressure; the reported figures, however, establish only the latest reversal, not a lasting trend.
There is also a counterweight outside the chart. Fiserv’s stablecoin platform has gone live on Solana, providing an adoption catalyst at a time when ETF flows have weakened. That development does not override daily support and resistance, but it complicates a strictly bearish reading of SOL’s current setup.
SOL support at $114.14 and the $110–$116 floor put $104.40 in play
At $114.88, SOL is only marginally above the nearest published daily support: the $114.14 S1 pivot. The day’s reported $114.42 low shows how closely the market has already approached that area. Below it, the larger $110–$116 breakout floor is the main structural zone to watch because it encompasses the current price rather than functioning as a single exact line.
| Level | Role | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| $114.14 | Nearest support | Daily S1 pivot just below spot |
| $110–$116 | Key support zone | Recent daily breakout floor |
| $107.11 | Lower support | 50-day EMA and lower edge of cited support structure |
| $104.40 | Major support | Published deeper support area |
| $117.36 | Nearest resistance | Weekly S1 pivot above spot |
| $119.58 | Next resistance | Daily R1 pivot |
| $122–$125 | Higher resistance zone | Triangle upper boundary and recent rejection/high area |
| $126–$130 | Higher resistance band | Technical resistance above the breakout floor |
A sustained daily close below $110–$116 would be the key bearish confirmation. The cited daily analysis says that such a close would expose a $99–$104 demand area. The independently published $104.40 support sits within that wider demand range, giving the title’s $104 downside scenario a defined technical reference point rather than making it an automatic destination.
The $107.11 50-day EMA is another important intervening level. If SOL loses the breakout floor but holds that moving average, the market would still have support before $104.40 comes into focus. Conversely, a move through $107.11 would remove one of the clearest longer-duration cushions identified in the supplied daily data.
On the upside, $117.36 is the nearest published resistance and is followed by $119.58. Reclaiming both would put SOL back above the 20-day EMA at $116.32 and above the latest 24-hour high of $117.90, although those are separate reference points. The next chart area is $122–$125, while $126–$130 is the higher resistance band cited in recent technical analysis.
The practical distinction is therefore between a bounce that merely returns SOL to resistance and one that can clear it. Holding within or above the $110–$116 zone and retaking $117.36 would weaken the immediate breakdown case. A recovery through $119.58 would offer a stronger challenge to the current short-term bearish momentum.
Solana price prediction: a $104 test depends on a confirmed loss of the breakout floor
The conditional downside case is clear: $104 becomes a credible area to watch if SOL closes below the $110–$116 breakout floor and cannot hold the $107.11 50-day EMA. That pathway would align with the negative daily MACD, spot trading below the 20-day EMA, and the latest weekly ETF-flow outflow. It would also be consistent with the cited analysis that places a $99–$104 demand area below a failed floor.
The case for treating $104 as a certain prediction is weakened by the broader data. RSI at 48.816 is neither oversold nor indicative of the extreme weakness that would independently confirm a deep sell-off; SOL also remains above its 50-day EMA and 200-day SMA. Separately, Fiserv’s Solana launch provides a fundamental adoption development apart from the short-term flow reversal.
The bearish setup would weaken if buyers defend $110–$116 and recover $117.36, with $119.58 the next nearby barrier. Clearing those levels would not establish a fresh uptrend by itself, but it would move price back above the 20-day EMA and reduce the immediate relevance of $104.40.
For now, SOL’s slide toward $114 leaves the market at a decision point. The latest ETF outflow and softening momentum favour caution, yet the decisive technical event remains a confirmed break of the floor—not simply an intraday move near it. Until that happens, $104 is a conditional downside scenario anchored by the published $104.40 support area, not a foregone outcome.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Be the first to comment