Reform UK and the Greens are threatening Labour’s control in London, and the “Starmer out by June 30, 2026” market has jumped to
Labour faces the possibility of losing control of several councils, including Barking and Dagenham, to Reform UK and the Greens. The June 30 market moved from 42% to
The term structure shows a 20-point gap between the June and December contracts. Traders are pricing in a major catalyst in the second half of the year. The June market, with 67 days remaining, reflects more immediate pressure on Starmer as Labour struggles to hold a city it once dominated comfortably.
Daily volume in the Starmer markets is $15,446 in USDC for the June contract and $14,116 for December. It takes just $906 to move the June market 5 points, making it thin enough for sharp swings. The December market is thicker, with $6,049 of depth to move 5 points.
The London elections matter here because they could accelerate a leadership crisis. Labour’s national poll numbers have already been sliding, and significant council losses on May 7 would add concrete evidence to the case against Starmer. At 49¢, a YES share on a June exit pays $1 if Starmer leaves, a potential 2x return. Traders are pricing real risk of a leadership change.
Watch for the May 7 election results. If Labour’s losses are large, expect heavy activity in the Starmer markets. A leadership challenge or a key resignation could move odds fast. Any public positioning from internal rivals like Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting would be a direct signal.
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